The Contrasting Seasonality Patterns of Some Cancer-Types and Herpes Zoster Can Be Explained by a Binary Classification of Immunological Reactions

Abstract

A binary classification of the pathogenic immune reactions as anti-inflammatory high-Treg reactions or pro-inflammatory low-Treg reactions explains both the relatively low incidence rate of several types of cancer, and the relatively high incidence rate of herpes zoster cases diagnosed in the summer compared to cases diagnosed in the winter (in regions with temperate climate). This binary model also elucidates the longer survival of cancer patients diagnosed during the summer compared to these diagnosed in the winter. The three key elements of this explanation are: (a) the effect of sunlight on Treg production; (b) the evolvement of cancer from a low-Treg condition at early stage, to a high-Treg condition at advanced stage, and (c) the evolvement of herpes zoster from a high-Treg condition at pre-exudative stage to a low-Treg condition at acute exudative stage. A significant proportion of indolent tumors at the time of diagnosis (>20%) is a prerequisite for a beneficial effect of sunlight on cancer incidence rate and prognosis. This prerequisite restricts the beneficial effect of diagnosis during summer to certain types of cancer. Clinical implication: the prognosis of early stage tumors may be improved by a course of corticosteroid (or other immunosuppressant) treatment.