The contribution of carbon dioxide emissions from the aviation sector to future climate change

Abstract

The compact Earth system model OSCARv2.2 is used to assess the climate impact of present and future civil aviation carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. The impact of aviation CO 2 on future climate is quantified over the 1940-2050 period, extending some simulations to 2100 and using different aviation CO 2 emission scenarios and two background Representative Concentrations Pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP6.0) for other emission sectors. Several aviation scenarios including weak to strong mitigation options are considered with emissions ranging from 386 MtCO 2 /year (Factor 2 scenario) to 2338 MtCO 2 /year (ICAO based scenario) in 2050. As a reference, in 2000, the calculated impact of aviation CO 2 emissions is 9.1±2 mK (0.8% of the total anthropogenic warming associated to fossil fuel emissions). In 2050, on a climate trajectory in line with the Paris Agreement limiting the global warming below 2°C (RCP2.6), the impact of the aviation CO 2 emissions ranges from 26±2 mK (1.4% of the total anthropogenic warming associated to fossil fuel emissions) for an ambitious mitigation strategy scenario (Factor 2) to 39±4 mK (2.0% of the total anthropogenic warming associated to fossil fuel emissions) for the least ambitious mitigation scenario of the study (ICAO based). On the longer term, if no significant emission mitigation is implemented for the aviation sector, the associated warming could further increase and reach a value of 99.5 mK±20 mK in 2100 (ICAO based), which corresponds to 5.2% of the total anthropogenic warming under RCP2.6. The contribution of CO 2 is estimated to represent 36%-51% of the total aviation radiative forcing of climate including short-term climate forcers. However, due to its long residence time in the atmosphere, aviation CO 2 will have a major contribution on decadal time scales. These additional short-terms forcers are subject to large uncertainties and will be analysed in forthcoming studies.

Climate benefits of proposed carbon dioxide mitigation strategies for international shipping and aviation

“…Our estimates for the contribution to global average temperature in the year 2100 from the aviation sector's CO 2 emissions of 0.05 • C falls at the lower end of the range presented by Terrenoire et al (2019), between 0.04 and 0.1 • C, based on a set of eight CO 2 emissions projections contrasting in traffic growth and efficiency gains. We note that this analysis includes the impact of both domestic and international aviation.…”

“…Huszar et al (2013) estimated that the CO 2 emissions from global aviation would produce 0.1 • C of warming by the end of the century, and an additional 0.1 • C of warming would stem from non-CO 2 impacts. More recent estimates from Terrenoire et al (2019) project that CO 2 emissions from the global aviation sector will be responsible for up to 0.1 • C by the end of the century in the absence of mitigation action.…”

Enhancing the ecological value of tropical agriculture through set-asides

“…As such, it is predicted that oil palm agriculture will cover 29-33 million hectares by 2050 (20,22). The associated deforestation is anticipated to negatively affect 54% and 64% of threatened mammals and birds globally (20), and release ~330 Mt CO2 each year (19,23), equivalent to almost half the average annual CO2 emissions from global aviation (24).…”

A Simplified Climate Change Model and Extreme Weather Model Based on a Machine Learning Method

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