The Convergence of Hate: An Analysis of UCR–NCVS Hate Crime Trends, 2003 to 2020

Abstract

Questions remain on whether the UCR constitutes a legitimate source for analyzing hate crime. While a handful of studies have attempted to uncover the law enforcement characteristics associated with reporting hate crime, scholars have yet to triangulate official data with other sources, namely the NCVS. In this study, I replicate past UCR-NCVS convergence analyses on hate crime incidents, determining whether these series converge and if they do so across different forms of bias motivation. Using 18 years of data from 2003 through 2020 at a national level, results indicate mixed support for convergence, drawing implications for research and policy.

Revisiting the Harm of Hate: A Quasi-Experimental Approach Using the National Crime Victimization Survey

“…Furthermore, readers might further consider that these results may not be generalizable to findings from other data sources. Although the NCVS and official sources (e.g., Uniform Crime Reports (UCR) or NIBRS) share commonality in their definitions of “hate crime,” the NCVS drastically over-estimates the incidence of hate crime in the United States at a national scale, despite the fact the two sources seem to move in tandem over extended periods of time (Holder, 2022; Kena & Thompson, 2021). In other words, using official data with this same methodology may yield different results and is worthy of further empirical investigation.…”

“…Others studying this issue have sometimes chosen official data, namely NIBRS. It is important to note, however, that comparisons between police-reported data and victimization reports or alternate databases tend to find some level of convergence between the two (Holder, 2022; Ruback et al, 2018).…”