The coSIR model predicts effective strategies to limit the spread of SARS-CoV-2 variants with low severity and high transmissibility

Abstract

Multiple new variants of SARS-CoV-2 have been identified as the COVID-19 pandemic spreads across the globe. However, most epidemic models view the virus as static and unchanging and thus fail to address the consequences of the potential evolution of the virus. Here, we built a competitive susceptible-infected-removed (coSIR) model to simulate the competition between virus strains of differing severities or transmissibility under various virus control policies. The coSIR model predicts that although the virus is extremely unlikely to evolve into a “super virus” that causes an increased fatality rate, virus variants with less severe symptoms can lead to potential new outbreaks and can cost more lives over time. The present model also demonstrates that the protocols restricting the transmission of the virus, such as wearing masks and social distancing, are the most effective strategy in reducing total mortality. A combination of adequate testing and strict quarantine is a powerful alternative to policies such as mandatory stay-at-home orders, which may have an enormous negative impact on the economy. In addition, building Mobile Cabin Hospitals can be effective and efficient in reducing the mortality rate of highly infectious virus strains.

Studies on Growth Characteristics and Cross-Neutralization of Wild-Type and Delta SARS-CoV-2 From Hisar (India)

“…In addition, the Delta variant rapidly synthesized viral RNA and achieved peak viral titers within 24 h as compared to the 48 h in WT. These observations on faster replication rate of the Delta variant reported in this study support the clinical finding, namely, high transmissibility of Delta variant ( Gan et al., 2021 ; Xu et al., 2021 ).…”

Ensuring Sufficient Cabin Hospital Beds for Curbing the Spread of COVID-19 - Findings from Petri Net Analysis

“…Though the natural selection process results in the evolution of virus variants with low severity and high transmissibility, researchers predicted that the total number of infections and deaths due to the pandemic would be more linked to the virus' transmissibility than its severity (Xu et al, 2021). Therefore, how to reduce the transmission risk of COVID-19 more effectively is a top concern in the battle.…”

An Analytical Framework for Understanding Infection Progression Under Social Mitigation Measures

“…Progress has been made in various directions, e.g. by taking into account the effects of quarantine [1,2], temporary immunity [3], recurrent outbreaks [4], vaccination [5][6][7][8], different levels of population susceptibility [9], comorbidities [8,10], stratification by age [11][12][13], competitive virus strains of different severity and/or transmissibility [14,15], spatial diffusion [16], human mobility between different regions [17][18][19], availability of testing kits [20], hospital infrastructure [21] and media coverage [22,23] to name a few. In particular, the attempts to combat the disease led to the introduction of social distancing measures on the scales hardly imaginable before [24].…”