The Cost Of Export Flows: Spline-Modeling And Factor Analysis

Abstract

When examining the value of export flows, it is important to assess the impact of two key factors -export volumes and export prices. The subject of the study is a factor analysis of the value of export flows. The aim is to evaluate the effectiveness of spline modeling in the factor analysis of the cost of flows. The methods of factor analysis of export flows refer to economic indices. The discreteness of indices limits the effectiveness of the analysis of the cost of flows in case of strong fluctuations in export prices and (or) export volumes, which is characteristic of the dynamics of oil export flows. Modeling without smoothing the empirical dynamics retains information about velocity fluctuations; after that, differentiation can be used to change in the analysis and operational management of trends in the cost of flows. The required accuracy can be achieved by data processing in the Maple 17 computer mathematics system, which performs calculations without rounding errors. The method of factor analysis showed the possibility to study the dependence of trends in the cost of export flows on fluctuations in the speed of export prices and export volumes. The methods of spline modeling and factor analysis of flow cost trends are effective, determine the impact of factors at nodal points and at any arbitrary time within the interval under study.