Journal Pre-proof J o u r n a l P r e -p r o o f COVID-19 admissions calculators: general population and paediatric cohort.
AbstractThe world is in the grip of pandemic . Children appear to be only mildly affected but for those countries that are still preparing for their first wave of infections, it is salutary to have some estimates with which to plan for eventual contingencies. These assessments would include acute hospital admission requirements, intensive care admissions and deaths per given population. It is also useful to have an estimate of how many paediatric admissions to expect per given population. However it is only very recently that paediatric epidemiological data has become available. This paper will create an interactive spreadsheet model to estimate population and paediatric admissions for a given population, with the author's country, Malta, as a worked example for both. Journal Pre-proof J o u r n a l P r e -p r o o f COVID-19 admissions calculators: general population and paediatric cohort. Paediatric populations Lu et. al. evaluated both symptomatic and asymptomatic children (<16 years) who were contacts with confirmed or suspected COVID19.(3) 1391 children were assessed with 171 (12.3%) confirmed cases. The median age was 6.7 years. Fever was present in 41.5% at any time during the illness. Other common signs and symptoms included cough and pharyngeal erythema. Journal Pre-proof J o u r n a l P r e -p r o o f 27 (15.8%) were asymptomatic with no radiological features of pneumonia. 12 had radiologic features of pneumonia in the absence of symptoms of infection. 3 patients required intensive care and invasive mechanical ventilation and these all had comorbidities (hydronephrosis, leukemia on maintenance chemotherapy, and intussusception. 6 (3.5%) had lymphopenia (lymphocyte count <1.2×10 9 /liter) The most common radiological finding was bilateral ground-glass opacity (32.7%). Dong et al. retrospectively evaluated 2,143 children (<18 years) who had confirmed infection or were presumed to have the disease based on symptoms and history of exposure.(4) Median age was 7 years. Levels of severity were defined thus: 4.4% were asymptomatic infections with normal chest imaging. 50.9 % were mild with symptoms of acute upper respiratory tract infection along with fever, fatigue, myalgia, cough, sore throat, runny nose, and sneezing. Physical examination 38.8 % were moderate with pneumonia but no obvious hypoxemia such as shortness of breath. Some of these had only radiological findings with no clinical manifestation. 5.2% were severe with dyspnea and oxygen saturation <92%. 0.6% were critical with respiratory failure/shock/encephalopathy/myocardial injury or heart failure/coagulopathyacute kidney injury.Interestingly, vulnerability was inversely related to age in that the proportion of severe and critical cases were 10.6 %, 7.3%, 4.2%, 4.1% and 3.0% for the age groups of <1, 1-5, 6-10, 11-15 and ≥16 years.
Journal Pre-proof
J o u r n a l P r e -p r o o f
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