The COVID-19 pandemic and the 2020 US presidential election

Abstract

What is the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the 2020 US presidential election? Guided by a pre-analysis plan, we estimate the effect of COVID-19 cases and deaths on the change in county-level voting for Donald Trump between 2016 and 2020. To account for potential confounders, we include a large number of COVID-19-related controls as well as demographic and socioeconomic variables. Moreover, we instrument the numbers of cases and deaths with the share of workers employed in meat-processing factories to sharpen our identification strategy. We find that COVID-19 cases negatively affected Trump's vote share. The estimated effect appears strongest in urban counties, in states without stay-at-home orders, in swing states, and in states that Trump won in 2016. A simple counterfactual analysis suggests that Trump would likely have won re-election if COVID-19 cases had been 5 percent lower. We also find some evidence that COVID-19 incidence had a positive effect on voters' mobilization, helping Biden win the presidency.

Stay-at-home orders, social distancing, and trust

“…Last, our study contributes to a larger literature on policy responses and social distancing in other countries, such as China and Italy (Qiu et al 2020 ; Bonacini et al 2021 ; Milani 2021 ), and to the growing literature documenting the socioeconomic consequences of the pandemic in the USA (e.g., Baccini et al 2021 ).…”

“… 24 See Baccini et al ( 2021 ) for more details on Trump’s response to the pandemic. See https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/coronavirus-polls/ and https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2020/10/09/perceptions-of-donald-trump-and-joe-biden/ for surveys of Americans.…”

Not My Pandemic: Solution Aversion and the Polarized Public Perception of COVID-19

“…Election in the United States, findings reported here may reflect the overly politicized public discourse on the pandemic and possible solutions (Baccini et al, 2021).…”

“…For example, disobedience of public health measures such as mask wearing and social distancing have contributed to the drastic increase in COVID-19 cases in late 2020 IHME COVID-19 Forecasting Team, 2021). Polarized public opinion surrounding the pandemic also had profound impact on the 2020 Presidential Election (Baccini et al, 2021).…”

The impact of repeated mass antigen testing for COVID-19 on the prevalence of the disease

“… 5 There are many studies examining the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on different types of outcomes, such as inequality in financial well-being (Botha et al 2021 ), the effect on the US presidential election (Baccini et al 2021 ), and labor demand (Kahn et al 2020 ); see also, for example, Brodeur et al ( 2020 ) for a review. …”