The Criminogenic Effect of Marijuana Dispensaries in Denver, Colorado: A Microsynthetic Control Quasi-Experiment and Cost-Benefit Analysis

Abstract

The study analyzed the criminogenic effect of legalizing recreational marijuana dispensaries in Denver. Street segments with recreational dispensaries experienced no changes in violent, disorder and drug crime but did experience an 18% increase in property crime, and street segments adjacent to recreational dispensaries experienced some notable (but non-significant) drug and disorder crime increases. Medical dispensaries demonstrated no significant crime changes. A cost-benefit analysis found the associated crime costs were largely offset by sales revenue. Monetary benefits were much less pronounced, and barely cost effective, when only considering tax revenue.

Crime control effects of a police substation within a business improvement district: A quasi‐experimental synthetic control evaluation

“…To evaluate whether the opening of the substation generated a crime reduction, it is important to incorporate reasonable control areas. This was accomplished via the microsynthetic control method , which has been applied in similar fashion recently in evaluations of place‐based interventions (Connealy, Piza, & Hatten, 2019; Robbins, Saunders, & Kilmer, 2017; Rydberg, McGarrell, Norris, & Circo, 2018; Saunders, Lundberg, Braga, Ridgeway, & Miles, 2015). This was used, as opposed to propensity score matching (e.g., Braga, Hureau, & Papachristos, 2012; Haberman, Clutter, & Henderson, 2018; Piza, 2018a; Zakrzewski, Wheeler, & Thompson, 2019), mainly because street units subjected to the treatment are clustered into one area, so it does not make sense to evaluate crime reductions from street unit to street unit.…”

The effect of the Seattle Police‐Free CHOP zone on crime: A microsynthetic control evaluation

“…As a derivative of synthetic control matching (Abadie & Gardeazabal, 2003), microsynth was designed to be compatible with microlevel units of analysis (Robbins & Davenport, 2021). The microsynthetic control method has been recently applied to study place‐based interventions such as the legalization of recreational marijuana dispensaries (Connealy et al., 2020), directed police patrols (Rydberg et al., 2018), police substations (Piza et al., 2020), and drug market intervention strategies (Saunders et al., 2015).…”

“…In total, 10 covariates were incorporated in the microsynth matching algorithm as informed by prior crime‐and‐place research (Braga et al., 2012; Connealy et al., 2020; Connealy, 2021; Piza et al., 2020): Preintervention crime counts: 6‐day crime count totals were matched on for the identified target zone from 6/1/2019 to 6/7/2020 (62 separate 6‐day matching blocks). High‐crime units: street segments with a pre‐CHOP crime total in the 80th percentile or above were dichotomously identified and operationalized as preintervention high‐crime units. High‐crime location quotient: using values ranging from –1 to 1, this measure accounts for the clustering of identified high‐crime units within the same block group as a measure of crime density (see Connealy et al., 2020; Piza et al., 2020). High call for service beat: SPD beats were dichotomously identified if their total volume of calls for service was in the 80th percentile as a potential proxy for police‐related activity and presence. Business total: the total count of commercial business establishments on each unit (aggregated in the matching model as the target total) serves as a measure of land usage and activity. Consumer‐facing establishment total: the total count of consumer‐facing establishments on each unit (aggregated in the matching model as the target total) designed to draw in foot traffic. Principal or arterial roadway: units were dichotomously identified if the street segment unit was a principal or arterial roadway or not. Street length: the total length of all segments was summed in the specified target zone. Concentrated disadvantage index: the standardized percentages of the percent residents receiving public assistance, percent families living below poverty line, percent female headed households, percent unemployed, and percent of population under 18 were summed and dichotomously operationalized as the total number of units above/below the mean level of disadvantage. Demographic index: the standardized percentage of percent non‐White, percent of residents aged 15–29, percent of vacancies, and percent of owned/rented homes at the block group level were summed and operationalized dichotomously as the total number of units above/below the mean. …”

“…High‐crime location quotient: using values ranging from –1 to 1, this measure accounts for the clustering of identified high‐crime units within the same block group as a measure of crime density (see Connealy et al., 2020; Piza et al., 2020).…”

“…In total, 10 covariates were incorporated in the microsynth matching algorithm as informed by prior crime-and-place research (Braga et al, 2012;Connealy et al, 2020;Connealy, 2021;:…”