Projections show that the impacts of a changing climate in Africa will vary by region, and that southern Africa will experience, on average, a warming of approximately 2°C higher than the predicted average global increase by the end of the century, with possible changes in the frequency and intensity of rainfall across various regions. These temperature and rainfall changes may lead to serious challenges when compounded by local vulnerabilities. A high burden of existing diseases, in particular HIV/AIDS, poverty, water and food insecurity, and often inadequate public health services, increase the vulnerability to climate-related health threats. The latest findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [1] confirm that the largest human health risks caused by climate change will be among communities and populations currently most affected by climate-related diseases. It is clear that human influences have led to the warming climate currently being experienced, which will continue into the future. Extreme weather events and Arctic ice loss, among other changes, have resulted from an estimated average temperature rise of just less than 1°C since the turn of the 20th century (similar information is not available for South Africa (SA)). Unless an immediate and concerted effort is made to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, future threats of further global warming, i.e. a rise in sea level, loss of biodiversity, exacerbation of climate-related diseases, will continue to increase.In southern Africa, the need for more focused research and intervention, control and eradication of vector-and water-borne diseases, respiratory conditions and cardiovascular illnesses, among others, is paramount. While a number of other factors including governance and better and more critical health-focused research are needed, it is clear that an integrated, multidisciplinary and co-ordinated response is required to curb the health risks projected from future climate changes. This article considers these health risks in the SA context, highlighting areas that need special attention.
A South African perspectiveFor SA, empirical evidence from regionally measured temperatures in recent decades shows that the rate of increase in annual maximum and minimum temperatures has been rising.[2] Based on sophisticated climate model ensembles, including the General Circulation Model projections and relevant downscaling of these models to more localised situations, climate projections for SA and the rest of Africa indicate a future warming in temperature of >2°C than the global average. [2,3] Given such changes, there will probably be significant health consequences for climate-related diseases and subsequently the quality of life for South Africans. Table 1 shows the top ten causes of death in SA, based on the most recent data for this type of analysis. A quadruple burden of disease is evident, with HIV/AIDS, chronic diseases, poverty-related conditions and injuries appearing as the leading causes of mortality. Climate change may increase...