The Cross-Dike Failure Probability by Wave Overtopping over Grass-Covered and Damaged Dikes

Bergeijk, Vera M. van; Verdonk, Vincent A.; Warmink, Jord Jurriaan; Hulscher, Suzanne J.M.H.

doi:10.3390/w13050690

Cited by 12 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 35 publications

(95 reference statements)

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“…This shows that whether damage is of relevance for flood defence reliability strongly depends on the relative strength decrease due to damage. This can depend strongly on the type of damage and the location along the slope (van Bergeijk et al 2021). Therefore, this is an important aspect to take into account in registering damage in the context of risk-based maintenance and inspection.…”

Section: Relevance Of Findings For Risk-based Maintenancementioning

confidence: 99%

Degradation of grass revetments: a comparison of field observations and structured expert judgement

Klerk¹,

Adhi²

2021

Science and Practice for an Uncertain Future

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Many flood defences in areas with a mild wave climate and lack of strong currents are covered with a grass revetment, typically on top of an erosion-resistant (clay) layer. The grass revetment increases the erosion-resistance due to its dense root structure, and experimental overtopping and wave impact tests have shown that it significantly increases the resistance to wave impact, run-up and overtopping loads. However, grass is a natural material, and especially when exposed to loads from weather, storms and human influences, assessment of its deterioration rate is difficult. Therefore, a Structured Expert Judgement study was carried out in which experts, mostly dike inspectors, were asked to estimate rates of deterioration for different types of grass revetments. The experts were weighted based on their performance on seed questions. In this paper we compare the results to damage observations in the Rhine delta which have been obtained during routine inspections. From this comparison it is found that degradation rates of grass revetments vary greatly for different locations, which is a probable cause of the considerable variance found from the Structured Expert Judgement study. Using an illustrative case study, we show the implications for inspection and maintenance of grass revetments.

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Section: Relevance Of Findings For Risk-based Maintenancementioning

confidence: 99%

Degradation of grass revetments: a comparison of field observations and structured expert judgement

Klerk¹,

Adhi²

2021

Science and Practice for an Uncertain Future

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“…Therefore, periodic assessment of the reliability of these levees is needed to ensure that they meet the required protection levels, which are often based on the acceptable risk of flooding (Vrijling, 2001; Vrijling et al, 1998). In addition, regular inspections are required to detect levee deterioration in an early stage, since damage to a levee can significantly reduce the levee's strength (van Bergeijk et al, 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A pragmatic, performance‐based approach to levee safety assessments

Rikkert

Kok

Lendering

et al. 2022

J Flood Risk Management

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Flood prone areas are often protected against flooding by an extensive network of flood defenses. To ensure their structural integrity, these flood defenses are periodically assessed. Many levees have been functioning well for decades, and have survived several relatively high hydraulic loads within their lifetime. However, information on survived load conditions is seldom included in levee safety assessments. Observed degradation from levee inspections is also not taken into account. That way, information that is useful to improve the accuracy of estimations of the actual strength of the levee remains unexploited.This study proposes a pragmatic approach to include observations of survived loads and levee degradation in the levee safety assessment. This approach consists of three steps: (1) a prior estimation of the failure probability, based on levee characteristics, (2) a posterior estimation of the failure probability, based on observed hydraulic loads, and (3) correction of the posterior failure probability estimation, based on levee inspections. In a case study, the estimated failure probabilities using this approach were much lower than when information on levee performance was not included. This study demonstrates the value of levee performance observations and how they could be included to improve levee safety assessments.embankments and levees, risk analysis, risk assessment, statistical methods | INTRODUCTIONGlobally, floods have been the most frequent climate and weather related hazards in the past decades (IFRC, 2020). Extensive systems of flood defenses protect flood prone areas by reducing the probability of flooding in many parts of the world (O'Dell et al., 2021). A large part of these flood defenses consists of earthen levees. Several failure mechanisms can cause a levee to lose its structural integrity, which can eventually lead to breaching and flooding of the hinterland (Özer et al., 2020). Therefore, periodic assessment of the reliability of these levees is needed to ensure that they meet the required protection levels, which are often based on the acceptable risk of flooding (Vrijling, 2001;Vrijling et al., 1998). In addition, regular inspections are required to detect levee

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“…Three papers are directly related to the development of fragility curves that are necessary for the risk assessment [9][10][11]. The fragility curves represent the probability of failure, or a certain level of damage, depending on a parameter that defines the intensity of the main action that might cause the failure.…”

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confidence: 99%