The Cuban revolution and infant mortality: A synthetic control approach

Geloso, Vincent; Pavlik, Jamie Bologna

doi:10.1016/j.eeh.2020.101376

Cited by 17 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…For example, Abadie and Gardeazabal (2003) use the SCM to study the depressive effect of the terrorist conflict in the Basque on its economy. Similarly, the SCM is used to examine the economic effects of the 1990 German reunification on West Germany (Abadie et al, 2015), evaluate the negative impact of Hugo Chavez on the Venezuelan economy (Grier & Maynard, 2016), and explore Fidel Castro's effect on health outcomes in Cuba (Geloso & Bologna Pavlik, 2021). 1 In our case, we construct a Synthetic (counterfactual) Malaysia using a convex combination of similar countries to get an estimate of what the economic output would have been in Mahathir's absence.…”

Section: The Synthetic Control Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The effect of the Mahathir regime on the Malaysian economy

Adisa

Farmer

Pavlik

2022

Econ of Transit and Inst Chang

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Dr. Mahathir bin Mohamad is often credited with Malaysia's dramatic economic success post-1980. It is well known that the Mahathir regime installed centralized power in the Office of the Prime Minister (PM) and greatly extended state capacity through a far-reaching clientelist system. Prima Facie, the Malaysian experience appears to validate power centralization and state capacity as complementary to economic development. Though these changes did make Malaysia more susceptible to corruption, dramatically exhibited in 2015 with the 1MDB 5 billion dollar scandal, it has been argued that the clientelist political structure installed in Malaysia generally manages corruption at tolerable levels in order to provide the state the capacity needed to implement controls for economic development that began in the 1980s. While Malaysia experienced impressive economic growth during the Mahathir administration, our test using the Synthetic Control Method finds that GDP per capita fell well below what would have been expected under the governing structures in place in the 1970s, before Mahathir took office-a loss of approximately $4000 per capita below its potential. This study provides evidence of powerful negative economic consequences attributable to greater power centralization and enhanced state capacity inaugurated under Mahathir.

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Section: The Synthetic Control Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We opt to maintain the classicAbadie and Gardeazabal (2003) assumption of non-negative weights to ensure that the synthetic control is constructed only from countries similar to Malaysia. This assumption is common in the empirical literature(Geloso & Bologna Pavlik, 2021;Grier & Maynard, 2016;Peri & Yasenov, 2019).…”

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confidence: 99%

The effect of the Mahathir regime on the Malaysian economy

Adisa

Farmer

Pavlik

2022

Econ of Transit and Inst Chang

Self Cite

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“…While it may be difficult to construct a valid SC unit using country-level data because of the large heterogeneity among countries, there is now an increasing number of studies that investigate the aggregate impact of nation-level policy reforms on relevant outcomes using country-level panel data and the SC method (Ryan et al, 2016;Restrepo and Rieger, 2016;Rieger et al, 2017;Arnold and Stadelmann-Steen, 2017;Podestà, 2017;Barlow, 2018;Olper et al, 2018;Tanndal and Waldenström 2018;Andersson, 2019;Rubolino and Waldenström, 2020;Geloso and Pavlik, 2020;Absher et al, 2020).…”

Section: Micro Versus Macro Impactmentioning

confidence: 99%

Does universal long-term care insurance boost female labor force participation? Macro-level evidence

Ando

Furuichi

Kaneko

2021

IZA Journal of Labor Policy

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Although a public long-term care (LTC) program is a potentially important factor for the labor supply of female informal caregivers, there are only a handful of individual-level studies on this topic and the macro-level impacts of LTC programs are still largely unknown. Exploiting the introduction of nationwide long-term care insurance (LTCI) in Japan and utilizing a synthetic control method, we examine how LTCI introduction has altered the trends of public expenditures on in-kind benefits for the elderly, public health expenditure, and female labor force participation. The estimation results using the panel data of OECD countries (1980–2013) suggest that LTCI introduction substantially increased the in-kind benefits for the elderly by around one percentage point of GDP 10 years after LTCI introduction, but we do not find a positive effect on the labor force participation for middle-aged women. The fact that we do not observe any positive LTCI effects on middle-aged female labor force participation on a macro level implies that positive LTCI effects on female labor supply observed in some previous microlevel studies may be cancelled out by some other factors or are small enough to be detected under a general-equilibrium setting.

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“…Instead, researcher and analyst often perform a comparative case study to evaluate the effect of an event or policy, particularly when the intervention or treatment happens to one single unit at an aggregate level, such as country and region [11,12]. In the comparative case study, research and analyst compare the dynamics of the aggregate outcome for the treated unit to those for a set of controls that are not affected by the event or policy, and obtain an estimate in the average treatment effect in the treated over the period after the introduction of an intervention or treatment [13][14][15][16][17]. For example, Card and Kruger measured the effectiveness of the minimum wage on the unemployment, by comparing New Jersey with Pennsylvania, based on data on fast food restaurants [18].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Principal Covariates Regression for Causal Case Studies

Ding

Jin

et al. 2022

Journal of Mathematics

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Researcher and analyst are often interested in estimating the effect of an intervention or treatment, which takes place at the aggregate level and affect one single unit, such as country and region. Thus, comparative case studies would be their first choice in practice. However, comparative case studies could fail to yield an estimate in the effect that is unbiased and consistent, as in some contexts; there are not suitable control units that are similar to the treated. The econometric literature has taken synthetic control methods and panel data approaches to this problem. In this study, we developed a principal covariate regression estimator, which exploits the cross-sectional correlation, as well as the temporal dependency, to reproduce the dynamics of the treated in the absence of an event or policy. From a theoretical perspective, we introduce the statistical literature on dimensional reduction to make a causal inference. From a technique perspective, we combine the vertical regression and the horizontal regression. We constructed an annual panel of 38 states, to evaluate the effect of Proposition 99 on beer sales in California, using the principal covariate regression estimator proposed here. We find that California’s tobacco control program had a significant negative and robust effect on local beer consumption, suggesting that policymakers could reduce the use of cigarette and alcohol in the public using one common behavioral intervention.

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The Cuban revolution and infant mortality: A synthetic control approach

Cited by 17 publications

References 36 publications

The effect of the Mahathir regime on the Malaysian economy

The effect of the Mahathir regime on the Malaysian economy

Does universal long-term care insurance boost female labor force participation? Macro-level evidence

Principal Covariates Regression for Causal Case Studies

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