The Current and Future Energy Economics of Concentrating Solar Power (Csp) in South Africa

Abstract

For South Africa, an increase in energy demand is associated with higher CO2 emissions. In order to overcome this challenge, the government started the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (REI4P) to allow easy integration of renewable energy technologies into the existing energy mix. The country has an abundant solar resource, and the potential to harvest this resource through concentrating solar power (CSP) has been proven. 600 MW of CSP have been bought in the REI4P, but the future of CSP in SA looks bleak, as the government's recent Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) updates gave no allocation to new CSP plants beyond 2030. Very few CSP plants are connected to the grid, and there is limited research and literature on its learning effect and economics of scale. This study analyses the state of CSP and uses a mathematical relationship to determine the progress ratio, the learning effect, and the likely future of CSP in South Africa. The results address the difficulties involved in determining the learning effect of CSP. OPSOMMINGVir Suid-Afrika word 'n toename in die vraag na energie geassosieer met hoër CO2-uitlate. Om hierdie uitdaging te oorkom, het die regering die Renewable Energy Independent Power Produsent Procurement Program (REI4P) begin om maklike integrasie van hernubare energie tegnologieë in die bestaande energiemengsel moontlik te maak. Die land het 'n oorvloed in sonkrag, en die potensiaal om hierdie hulpbron te benut deur konsentrasie van sonkrag (CSP) is alreeds bewys. 600 MW CSP is in met die REI4P gekoop, maar die toekoms van CSP in SA lyk bleek, aangesien die regering se onlangse opdaterings van die Geïntegreerde Hulpbronplan (IRP) geen toewysing na 2030 aan nuwe CSP-aanlegte gedoen het nie. Baie min CSP-aanlegte is verbind met die netwerk, en daar is beperkte navorsing en literatuur oor sy leer-effek en skaalbesparing. Hierdie studie analiseer die stand van CSP en gebruik 'n wiskundige verhouding om die vorderingsverhouding, die leer effek, en die waarskynlike toekoms van CSP in Suid-Afrika te bepaal. Die resultate spreek die probleme aan in de bepaling van die leer-effek van CSP.

One technology, two pathways? Strategic Niche Management and the diverging diffusion of concentrated solar power in South Africa and the United States

“…The social network associated with the CSP niche in South Africa did not begin to function until 2011. It was comprised almost entirely of the Spanish companies responsible for the small number of projects that had begun to be developed with the introduction of the REIPPP scheme [95]. Initially, due to unfamiliarity with CSP technology, it was difficult to recruit local actors into the network.…”

“…Initially, due to unfamiliarity with CSP technology, it was difficult to recruit local actors into the network. This reflected the general conservatism of the entrepreneurial culture in South Africa: local financial institutions and companies were reluctant to support innovative technologies with no record of domestic success [95]. This was why the debt financing of the Bokpoort project had to be provided almost entirely by various international banks [93].…”

“…Our analysis indicates the social network promoting the diffusion of CSP technologies in the country currently faces several discouragements, including a lack of interest by local companies, high transportation costs for importing the materials required by CSP projects, and the inability of local labour to match the productivity of labour provided by international companies [95].…”