The Current and Future Potential Geographical Distribution of the Solanum Fruit Fly, Bactrocera latifrons (Diptera: Tephritidae) in China

Abstract

Part 1: Decision Support Systems, Intelligent Systems and Artificial Intelligence ApplicationsInternational audienceThe solanum fruit fly, Bactrocera latifrons (Hendel), is a major pest throughout South and South East Asia, including very few parts of southern China, and has invaded Hawaii and recently the continent of Africa (Tanzania and Kenya). With the development of international trade in fruits and vegetables, B. latifrons has become a potential threat to Chinese agriculture. In this study, CLIMEX 3.0 and ArcGIS 9.3 were used to predict the current and future potential geographical distribution of B. latifrons in China. Under current climatic conditions, its projected potential distribution includes most parts of southern China (about 32.2% of all 748 meteorological stations), from 16.544°N to 32.442°N. Optimal climate conditions occur in most areas of Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan, Chongqing, Hunan, Hubei, Jiangxi, Zhejiang, Fujian, Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macao. The factors limiting the boundary of its suitability range are mainly the cold and dry stress. Climate change scenario for the 2020s indicates that the future potential geographical distribution will be increased by 5% of the total land areas of China, and the northern distribution boundary will move from 32.442°N to 33.408°N. There are 34 non-suitable climate sites change into suitable, mainly in Jiangsu, Anhui, Henan, Shanxi, Gansu, Sichuan and Tibet, because of China is likely to become hotter and wetter in the 2020s. In order to prevent the introduction and spread of B. latifrons, the present plant quarantine and monitor measures should be enhanced more where are projected to be suitable areas under current as well as future climatic conditions. At the same time, we should strengthen education for the public’s awareness of plant protection

Predicted decrease in global climate suitability masks regional complexity of invasive fruit fly species response to climate change

“…To comprehensively combine host information and propagule pressure is a challenging task, as future trade and fruit production projections are largely unavailable in public repositories. Insect introductions are typically accidental and driven through hitchhiking on plant material, soil and wood products (Desurmont and Pearse, 2014; Liebhold et al THIS ISSUE) and many interceptions of some species of tephritid are from individual people carrying fruit across borders (Ma et al 2012). Thus while our use of trade data and fruit production as proxies for propagule pressure and host availability are large assumptions, we anticipate there will be correlation with the actual processes underlying tephritid invasions.…”

“…Recent analyses of invasion pathways for Ceratitis capitata support this hypothesis, for at least the last two centuries (Karsten et al 2015). More recently, passenger baggage for air travel has revealed itself as a major pathway (Liebhold et al 2006;Ma et al 2012), and that these introductions are not isolated events but rather occur with some regularity. This is seen in examples which include a number of pest tephritids that are continually reappearing in California (Papadopoulos et al 2013), a large increase in the number of B. latifrons interceptions in China in recent years (Ma et al 2012) and Bactrocera dorsalis (previously B. invadens) intercepted repeatedly in traps in northern South Africa after spreading from recent introduction in Kenya (Manrakhan et al 2011).…”

“…Although there are a few individual assessments (Stephens et al 2007;Ma et al 2012;Ni et al 2012;Fu et al 2014), a comprehensive assessment of their responses to global climate change has not yet been explored.…”

Global drivers of historical true fruit fly (Diptera: Tephritidae) invasions

“…that greatly reduce introduction risk (Hennessey et al 2013;Peterson et al 2013). Consequently, during the post-World War II era the pathway of increasing dominance for Tephritid invasions has been movement of immature life stages in fruit carried by airline passengers (Satoh et al 1985;Liebhold et al 2006;Ma et al 2012;Papadopoulos 2014). Thus, it seems likely that the rapid acceleration of invasions from 1950 onward (Figure 1B) can be attributed to the expansion of commercial air passenger travel over the last 6 decades (Matsumoto 2007).…”