The current state and future directions of modeling thermosphere density enhancements during extreme magnetic storms

Abstract

Satellites, crewed spacecraft and stations in low-Earth orbit (LEO) are very sensitive to atmospheric drag. A satellite's lifetime and orbital tracking become increasingly inaccurate or uncertain during magnetic storms. Given the planned increase of government and private satellite presence in LEO, the need for accurate density predictions for collision avoidance and lifetime optimization, particularly during extreme events, has become an urgent matter and requires comprehensive international collaboration. Additionally, long-term solar activity models and historical data suggest that solar activity will significantly increase in the following years and decades. In this article, we briefly summarize the main achievements in the research of thermosphere response to extreme magnetic storms occurring particularly after the launching of many satellites with state-of-the-art accelerometers from which high-accuracy density can be determined. We find that the performance of an empirical model with data assimilation is higher than its performance without data assimilation during all extreme storm phases. We discuss how