Citation for final published version:Pourpourides, Panayiotis M. and Otrok, Christopher 2017. On the cyclicality of real wages and wage differentials.
AbstractPrevious empirical literature suggests that estimated wage cyclicality depends on the structure of the relationship between real wages and an observed indicator of the business cycle that econometric models impose prior to estimation. This paper, alleviates the problem of imposing such structure by searching directly for the largest common cycles in longitudinal microdata using a Bayesian dynamic latent factor model. We …nd that the comovement of real wages is related to a common factor that exhibits a signi…cant but imperfect correlation with the national unemployment rate. Among others, our …ndings indicate that the common factor explains, on average, no more than 9% of wage variation, the common factor accounts for 20% or less of the wage variability for 88% of the workers in the sample and roughly half of the wages move procyclically while half move countercyclically. These facts are inconsistent with claims of a strong systematic relationship between real wages and business cycles. JEL Classi…cation Codes: C11, C13, C22, C23, C81, C82, J31We thank Julie Yates (Bureau of Labor Statistics) and Steve McClaskie (National Longitudinal Surveys user services) for information and help with the data.