The Czech economic transition

Abstract

The processes that will drive the next stage of the Czech transition are likely to be similar to those promoting real convergence in the EU cohesion countries. We draw on previous modelling research on the cohesion economies to construct and calibrate a small macrosectoral model of the Czech Republic that serves to highlight key policy issues facing CEE-country decision-makers. Four scenarios are then explored by simulation: the first projects the current pattern of disequilibrium wage setting into the future, while a second looks at the consequences of labour market reform. The other scenarios highlight some of the differences between policy strategies based on indigenous versus FDI-driven export-led growth.

An Integrated Micro-Macro (IMM) Approach to the Evaluation of Large-Scale Public Investment Programmes: The Case of EU Structural Funds

“…If such empirical model frameworks are not constructed, then it may prove difficult to explore and study the development choices that will undoubtedly face the CEE economies as their decision makers attempt to design policies and structures that will ensure convergence to average EU standards of living. However, if such models are constructed, then their experimental and speculative nature must be kept in mind and model simulations must be regarded as explorative consistency checks rather than firm forecasts (Barry, et al, 2003).…”

On Becoming European: An Economist’s Education

“…David subsequently became a leading member of the Czech economics profession, and is now with the Czech National Bank. Our early work on the Czech Republic was eventually published in the Journal of Transition Economics (Barry, et al 2003).…”