The death of conservative Ireland? The 2018 abortion referendum

Abstract

The outcomes of two recent Irish referendums -on marriage equality in 2015 and abortion in 2018 -have placed contemporary Irish voters in sharp contrast with their long-standing conservative Catholic reputation. These referendums also stand out internationally because of the associated deliberative innovation. This paper aims to explain the watershed abortion vote drawing on theories of generational change, issue-voting, cue-taking and deliberative democracy, using data from an exit poll at the 2018 abortion referendum. We show that age and cleavage effects are key to understanding the referendum outcome. These results offer insight into how societal processes such as rapid secularisation, generational replacement and democratic innovations shape politics. Moreover, voters who were aware of the deliberative innovation were more likely to support the liberal referendum option. To increase willingness to deviate from the status quo, engaging citizens actively in the debate is a fruitful approach.

Scaling up Deliberation: Testing the Potential of Mini‐Publics to Enhance the Deliberative Capacity of Citizens

“…The wider citizenry might use these facilitative trustees to make judgments on their behalf when they offer a consensus recommendation (Fishkin 2009; Landemore 2013). Indeed, evidence from Irish minipublics finds that those who know more about the minipublic also have higher levels of subject knowledge and are more likely to vote in line with the minipublic recommendation (Elkink et al 2017, 2020; Suiter and Reidy 2020).…”

“…Either of the preceding mechanisms justify the expectation that being exposed to information about the minipublic and its findings may lead to knowledge gain, which could potentially lead the wider citizenry to reconsider policy preferences (Goodin and Dryzek 2006). Both could be obtained, for example, with the help of extensive media coverage of these events (Elkink et al 2017, 2020). In this paper, we examine whether reading about the minipublic and its key findings can lead to factual knowledge gain among non‐participating citizens.…”

Citizens' Assemblies for Referendums and Constitutional Reforms: Is There an “Irish Model” for Deliberative Democracy?

“…Indeed, the first reaction of the Taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, to the "liberal" recommendations of the ICA was to say that "the country is not ready for abortion on demand, " arguing "I honestly don't know if the public would go as far as what the Citizens' Assembly have recommended" (Doyle, 2017;Hayden, 2017). In the follow-up to an intense campaign between pro-life and pro-choice, the Irish people voted in favor of the right to abortion in proportion somewhat similar to that of the ICA, with 66.4% "yes" and a historical turnout of almost 65% (Elkink et al, 2020), thus granting a strong output legitimacy.…”

“…Suiter and Reidy (2020, 551) note that "the Constitutional Convention at the marriage referendum and the Citizens' Assembly at the abortion referendum also mattered by enhancing the quality of vote choice;" but, surprisingly, their analysis does not take into account the failure of the referendum on the age of eligibility for the presidency, therefore somewhat skewing their conclusion. Moreover, all credit cannot be attributed to citizens' assembly; social movements, protests, local debates, and campaigns also played a role, but also demographic factors revealing a tendency toward liberal opinions, especially church attendance and age (Elkink et al, 2020). The impact of the CotC on the referendum on blasphemy has not yet been demonstrated.…”

The proposer or the proposal? An experimental analysis of constitutional beliefs

“…He concludes that voter sentiment towards Article 9 was conservative, in that it preferred retention of the status quo and reacted negatively to proposed changes of that status quo. amendment preferences can be issue-specific (Elkink et al, 2020), especially when they are more familiar with the matter at hand (Garry et al, 2005). Because the LDP's proposals covered a wide variety of topics, we cannot easily assess issue preferences on each item.…”