The Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) contribution to CMIP6

Boer, G. J.; Smith, Douglas M.; Cassou, Christophe; Doblas‐Reyes, Francisco J.; Danabasoglu, Gökhan; Kirtman, Ben P.; Kushnir, Yochanan; Kimoto, Masahide; Meehl, Gerald A.; Msadek, Rym; Mueller, Wolfgang; Taylor, Karl E.; Zwiers, Francis W.; Rixen, M.; Ruprich‐Robert, Yohan; Eade, Rosie

doi:10.5194/gmd-9-3751-2016

Cited by 335 publications

(416 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…Systematic exploration of the sources of skill are illuminating (e.g., [186,187]), as are process-oriented studies that help identify the mechanisms behind North Atlantic variability [36•, 88••] and skill. In addition to standard hindcasts with next-generation CGCMs, the Decadal Climate Prediction Project has called for several such targeted investigations in CMIP6 that should help spur advances for years to come [188]. Finally, the steady advancements seen in the field of numerical weather prediction over the last century give us good reason to expect similar progressive improvements in our ability to predict the Atlantic on interannual to decadal timescales as models and initialization techniques improve, as the observing system expands, and as computing power increases [189].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent Progress in Understanding and Predicting Atlantic Decadal Climate Variability

Yeager

Robson

2017

Curr Clim Change Rep

145

122

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Purpose of Review Recent Atlantic climate prediction studies are an exciting new contribution to an extensive body of research on Atlantic decadal variability and predictability that has long emphasized the unique role of the Atlantic Ocean in modulating the surface climate. We present a survey of the foundations and frontiers in our understanding of Atlantic variability mechanisms, the role of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), and our present capacity for putting that understanding into practice in actual climate prediction systems. Recent Findings The AMOC-or more precisely, the buoyancy-forced thermohaline circulation (THC) that encompasses both overturning and gyre circulations-appears to underpin decadal timescale prediction skill in the subpolar North Atlantic in retrospective forecasts. Skill in predicting more wide-ranging climate variations, including those over land, is more limited, but there are indications this could improve with more advanced models. Summary Preliminary successes in the field of initialized Atlantic climate prediction confirm the climate relevance of low-frequency Atlantic Ocean dynamics and suggest that useful decadal climate prediction is a realizable goal.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent Progress in Understanding and Predicting Atlantic Decadal Climate Variability

Yeager

Robson

2017

Curr Clim Change Rep

145

122

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“…However, conducting such experiments within a multimodel framework, using other coupled climate models, will be highly beneficial to strengthen our conclusions. This will be done as part of the CMIP6 Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP), which calls for coordinated experiments following a protocol similar to the one proposed in this study (Boer et al, 2016 Enfield, D. B., A. M. Mestas-Nuñez, and P. J. Trimble, 2001: The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and its relation to rainfall and river flows in the continental U.S. Geophys. Res.…”

Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Consequently, learning more about the causes of this variability, the extent to which it can be predicted, and the greater the clarity that we can provide on the climatic conditions that will unfold over coming years and decades is a high priority for the research community. This importance is reflected in new initiatives by WCRP, CLIVAR, and in the Decadal Climate Prediction Project (Boer et al, 2016) that target this area of research. Here we briefly examine some of the things we know, and have recently learnt, about the causes and predictability of Southern Hemisphere MDCV (SH MDCV), and current skill in its prediction.…”

Section: Opportunities For Progressmentioning

confidence: 99%

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2017

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“…strategies have been designed to directly address teleconnectivity (DCPP Component C; Boer et al 2016) and thus perfectly fit within the proposed framework. The emergence of high-resolution models now compatible with DCV studies, together with increasing computing resources, is a promising opportunity for improved model fidelity and better simulation of the four abovementioned teleconnections.…”

Section: ) Revisit the Traditional Definition Of DCV Phenomenamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…3 Decadal forecasts were part of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5; Taylor et al 2012), and the Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) 4 ensures the coordination and design of the modeling experiments in the ongoing CMIP6 (Boer et al 2016).…”

Section: Halle Ng E S An D Outstan Ding Questionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Decadal Climate Variability and Predictability: Challenges and Opportunities

Cassou

Kushnir

Hawkins

et al. 2018

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

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109

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The study of Decadal Climate Variability (DCV) and Predictability is the interdisciplinary endeavor to characterize, understand, attribute, simulate, and predict the slow, multiyear variations of climate at global (e.g., the recent slowdown of global mean temperature rise in the early 2000s) and regional (e.g., decadal modulation of hurricane activity in the Atlantic, ongoing drought in California or in the Sahel in the 1970s–80s, etc.) scales. This study remains very challenging despite decades of research, extensive progress in climate system modeling, and improvements in the availability and coverage of a wide variety of observations. Considerable obstacles in applying this knowledge to actual predictions remain. This short article is a succint review paper about DCV and predictability. Based on listed issues and priorities, it also proposes a unifying theme referred to as “drivers of teleconnectivity” as a backbone to address and structure the core DCV research challenge. This framework goes beyond a preoccupation with changes in the global mean temperature and directly addresses the regional impacts of external (natural and anthropogenic) climate forcing and internal climate interactions; it thus explicitly deals with the societal needs for region-specific climate information. Such a framework also enables the integration of efforts in a large international research community toward advancing the observation, characterization, understanding, and prediction of DCV. Recommendations to make progress are provided as part of the contribution of the CLIVAR “DCVP Research Focus” group.

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The Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) contribution to CMIP6

Cited by 335 publications

References 46 publications

Recent Progress in Understanding and Predicting Atlantic Decadal Climate Variability

Recent Progress in Understanding and Predicting Atlantic Decadal Climate Variability

Untitled

Decadal Climate Variability and Predictability: Challenges and Opportunities

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