The Decline and Rise of Interstate Migration in the United States: Evidence From the Ipums, 1850–1990

Abstract

We examine evidence on trends in interstate migration over the past 150 years, using data from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series of the U.S. Census (IPUMS). Two measures of migration are calculated. The first considers an individual to have moved if she is residing in a state different from her state of birth. The second considers a family to have moved if it is residing in a state different from the state of birth of one of its young children. The latter measure allows us estimate the timing of moves more accurately. Our results suggest that overall migration propensities have followed a U-shaped trend since 1850, falling until around 1900 and then rising until around 1970. We examine variation in the propensity to make an interstate move by age, sex, race, nativity, region of origin, family structure, and education. Counterfactuals based on probit estimates of the propensity to migrate suggest that the rise in migration of families since 1900 is largely attributable to increased educational attainment. The decline of interstate migration in the late nineteenth century remains to be explained.

Changing Patterns of Geographic Mobility and the Labor Market for Young Adults

“…Finally, our results relate to the literature on measurement of migration rates in the United States (for example, Rosenbloom and Sundstrom, 2004, Molloy et al, 2011, and Kaplan and Schulhofer-Wohl, 2012. Much of that literature studies cross-sectional public-use datasets, such as the decennial census, the American Community Survey, or the Current Population Survey, that pose two significant data limitations.…”

Internal Migration in the United States

“…and measures of migration, by almost any measure migration in the 2000s was lower than the 1980s. This decrease marks a noticeable departure from the longer-run trend, as migration shows a secular rise from 1900 to 1990 (Ferrie, 2003;Rosenbloom and Sundstrom, 2004). 5 Indeed, documenting this decline is a central point of our paper.…”

“…This belief is not exactly wrong, but reality is more complex. For example, the Dust Bowl migrants of the 1930s were not representative of their time, but rather were an exceptional case during a period of markedly low internal migration (Ferrie, 2003;Rosenbloom and Sundstrom, 2004). While the United States has historically had one of the highest migration rates in the world by many measures, citizens of some other countries-including Finland, Denmark and Great Britain-appear equally mobile.…”

Climate Amenity and BMI

“…In the last 4 to 5 decades, economic opportunities and the availability of climate control for interior spaces have expanded population migrations from the North to the South and from the Atlantic and Pacific seaboards to the nation's hinterlands, such as Nevada (1). The net effect is that a greater percentage of the U.S. population is now residing in places that used to be less habitable and low‐cost because of less desirable climate.…”