The Demography of China's 1958-61 Famine

Abstract

The history of humankind is fi lled with war, epidemics and famine. While the causes of famine are well documented in the literature, their social, health and demographic consequences are less clearly understood. As detailed, reliable data are rarely available, the numbers of deaths, migrants and refugees are often estimated in overall terms. Looking beyond the effects brought to light by individual-level survey data, Zhongwei ZHAO and Anna REIMONDOS reveal the dramatic impact on demographic behaviour of the great famine that swept across China between 1958 and 1961. They also examine the variations in demographic response by place of residence and socio-demographic characteristics. While fertility and marriage rates declined everywhere, and child mortality increased sharply, rural areas were more severely affected than urban areas, and low educated families more than higher educated ones.

Could changes in reported sex ratios at birth during China's 1958-1961 famine support the adaptive sex ratio adjustment hypothesis?

“…While the difference in SRB between children of lower and higher birth orders observed in the earlier period was not statistically significant because of the relatively small sample size, the observed patterns were consistent with those found in China"s national population in recent years (Zeng et al 1993;Coale and Banister 1994;Gu and Roy 1995). Although some of these results may not be seen as statistically significant evidence that allows us to accept or reject the hypothesis cited earlier, they and those reported by other studies (Zhao and Reimondos 2012) suggest that deliberate human interference has been a major factor leading to notable variations in SRB in the Chinese population.…”

“…Among children with one surviving sibling, those with an elder brother were more likely to die than those with an elder sister. Among those with two surviving siblings, children with two elder brothers were more likely to die than those with two sisters (Zhao and Reimondos 2012). During the famine, and also in recent years, SRB tended to be higher among children of higher parities than among children of lower parities (Zeng et al 1993;Gu and Roy 1995).…”

“…For example, in several provinces infant mortality rose to more than 200 per thousand in 1959 and 1960, and fertility among young women fell by 60% in 1960 and 1961 in comparison to that in 1957. A large proportion of young people also postponed their marriages (Zhao and Reimondos 2012). When the famine finally ended many people wanted to make up for their demographic loss.…”

“…The famine also lasted for more than three years in some areas. Previous analysis showed that this famine started from at least mid-1958 when mortality was already significantly higher than in 1957 in several provinces (Zhao and Reimondos 2012). 7 Even at the national level, the Crude Death Rate was notably higher in 1958 in comparison with the previous year (Yao and Yin 1994).…”

“…Mortality was much higher in rural than in urban areas. In some provinces fertility also fell to a lower level in rural than in urban areas (Zhao and Reimondos 2012). If the above hypothesis and claim were true, we would expect to see a higher SRB recorded in China"s urban areas.…”