The design strategy and methodology of the RAPID-MOC project moorings

Rayner, Darren; Kanzow, Torsten

doi:10.3723/ut.29.159

Cited by 2 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…At 26.5 • N, the RAPID-MOCHA (Rapid Climate Change/Meridional Overturning Circulation and Heatflux Array) program (hereafter, RAPID) has continuously monitored the AMOC since 2004 (Rayner & Kanzow, 2011). Initially, these observations suggested that a decline in AMOC transport could be occurring (Robson et al, 2014;Smeed et al, 2014), and later a sustained reduced mean transport post-2008 was detected (Smeed et al, 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Detectability of an AMOC Decline in Current and Projected Climate Changes

Lobelle

Beaulieu

Livina

et al. 2020

Geophysical Research Letters

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Determining whether the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)'s transport is in decline is challenging due to the short duration of continuous observations. To estimate how many years are needed to detect a decline, we conduct a simulation study using synthetic data that mimics an AMOC time series. The time series' characteristics are reproduced using the trend, variance, and autocorrelation coefficient of the AMOC strength at 26.5 • N from 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models under the RCP8.5 future scenario, and from RAPID observations (2004-2018). Our results suggest that the 14-year RAPID length has just entered the lower limits of the trend's "detection window" based on synthetic data generated using CMIP5 trends and variability (14-42 years; median = 24 years), but twice the length is required for detectability based on RAPID variability (29-67 years; median = 43 years). The annual RAPID trend is currently not statistically significant (−0.11 Sv yr −1 , p > 0.05). Plain Language Summary There are ongoing discussions in the scientific community about whether the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation transport is slowing down. This is of interest due to the importance of this circulation in transporting heat from the tropics to the northern latitudes. A consensus about its decline is hard to reach due to the limited direct observational data available; with the longest continuous data being 14 years long from 2004 to 2018. We therefore conduct a simulation experiment to examine how many years of data are required to detect a decline in the circulation. We create simulations of the North Atlantic transport based on statistical properties from 20 general circulation models with future climate change projections (until 2100) and from the RAPID array observations (since 2004). Our results demonstrate that the length of data we currently have from observations has just entered the "detection window" of 14-42 years (based on model simulations). However, the RAPID observations do not currently exhibit a statistically significant trend.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Detectability of an AMOC Decline in Current and Projected Climate Changes

Lobelle

Beaulieu

Livina

et al. 2020

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…In the configuration deployed in Autumn 276 2012, the array consisted of 19 moorings 2 and 22 landers 3 , with a total of 252 instruments 277 (McCarthy (2012)). Based on experience with the initial deployments some changes in 278 the locations and design of the moorings have been made (Rayner and Kanzow (2011)). 279…”

Section: Produced Time Varying 197mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this paper we have reviewed and discussed the AMOC measurements at 26ºN, 1108 including improvements to the calculation of the AMOC and MHT since Rayner et al 1109Rayner et al (2011 and Johns et al (2011). We have made detailed estimates of the uncertainties 1110 (Table 6. estimates of transport representative of the basinwide flow .…”

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confidence: 99%