The development of probabilistic models to estimate accident risk (due to runway overrun and landing undershoot) applicable to the design and construction of runway safety areas

Valdés, Rosa María Arnaldo; Comendador, Fernando Gómez; Gordún, Luis Mijares; Nieto, Francisco Javier Sáez

doi:10.1016/j.ssci.2010.09.020

Cited by 52 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 2 publications

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“…And that is for such a length, what is the length of the unused runway during takeoff or landing: LSA = unused RWY + RWY Strip + RESA. This idea was already addressed in Kirkland et al [5] and Valdes et al [6].…”

Section: Correction Of Dimensions Of Safety Areas For the Remainimentioning

confidence: 88%

Runway Safety Areas

Štumper

Kraus

Vittek

et al. 2015

MAD

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Section: Correction Of Dimensions Of Safety Areas For the Remainimentioning

confidence: 88%

Runway Safety Areas

Štumper

Kraus

Vittek

et al. 2015

MAD

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“…5), which is for such a length as the length of the unused runway during take-off or landing. This idea was already addressed in Kirkland et al [10] and Valdes et al [11]. Another factor is the altitude of the airport, which increases the TODR and LDR.…”

Section: Correction Of Dimensions Of Safety Areas For the Remaining Runway Lengthmentioning

confidence: 94%

Probabilistic Model for Airport Runway Safety Areas

Szabó¹,

Vittek²,

Kraus³

et al. 2017

Transport Problems

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The Laboratory of Aviation Safety and Security at CTU in Prague has recently started a project aimed at runway protection zones. The probability of exceeding by a certain distance from the runway in common incident/accident scenarios (takeoff/landing overrun/veer-off, landing undershoot) is being identified relative to the runway for any airport. As a result, the size and position of safety areas around runways are defined for the chosen probability. The basis for probability calculation is a probabilistic model using statistics from more than 1400 real-world cases where jet airplanes have been involved over the last few decades. Other scientific studies have contributed to understanding the issue and supported the model's application to different conditions.

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“…To prevent these risks, it was recommended by ICAO (2018) to build Runway Safety Areas (RSAs), which help to reduce damage in overruns and also in overshoots. In this context, Arnaldo Valdés et al (2011) proposed a probability-based approach to estimate risks in both overrun and undershoot, offering solutions for the construction of RSAs. Drees et al (2014) analysed the influence of some aerodynamic variables and proposed a sensitivity analysis method based on simulated data.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Bayesian-Network-based Approach to Risk Analysis in Runway Excursions

Calle-Alonso¹,

Pérez

Ayra

2019

J. Navigation

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Aircraft accidents are extremely rare in the aviation sector. However, their consequences can be very dramatic. One of the most important problems is runway excursions, when an aircraft exceeds the end (overrun) or the side (veer-off) of the runway. After performing exploratory analysis and hypothesis tests, a Bayesian-network-based approach was considered to provide information from risk scenarios involving landing procedures. The method was applied to a real database containing key variables related to landing operations on three runways. The objective was to analyse the effects over runway overrun excursions of failing to fulfil expert recommendations upon landing. For this purpose, the most influential variables were analysed statistically, and several scenarios were built, leading to a runway ranking based on the risk assessed.

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The development of probabilistic models to estimate accident risk (due to runway overrun and landing undershoot) applicable to the design and construction of runway safety areas

Cited by 52 publications

References 2 publications

Runway Safety Areas

Runway Safety Areas

Probabilistic Model for Airport Runway Safety Areas

A Bayesian-Network-based Approach to Risk Analysis in Runway Excursions

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