The Developmentalist Project of the PT Governments: An Economic and Political Assessment

Abstract

An analysis of the endogenous and exogenous political and economic factors that conditioned the Partido dos Trabalhadores’s (PT) social-developmentalist project in 2003–2016 in the light of financialization and the “confidence game” conditioned by the volatility of external liquidity and commodities prices concludes that the first Lula administration faced the problem of a crisis of confidence and adopted orthodox policies but was able, with the improvement of international conditions, to launch policies of a more interventionist and distributive trend. Dilma Rousseff, facing a downright unfavorable international context, explicitly broke with the confidence game by applying the policy set of the new macroeconomic matrix. In her second term she radically reversed the policy orientation, moving toward a strong fiscal adjustment and monetary orthodoxy, and this eventually undermined her few sources of political support. The economic crisis from the second half of 2014 on undoubtedly contributed to the political crisis, which in turn made infeasible any attempt to implement policies to reverse the situation of economic crisis. Dilma’s impeachment finally interrupted the PT’s developmentalist project, allowing the emergence of new political actors. Uma análise dos fatores endógenos e exógenos, políticos e econômicos que condicionaram o projeto social-desenvolvimentista do Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT) em 2003–2016 à luz da financeirização e do “confidence game” condicionado pela volatilidade dos ciclos externos de liquidez e preços de commodities conclui que o primeiro governo Lula enfrentou o problema de crise de confiança e adotou políticas ortodoxas, mas pôde, com a melhoria nas condições internacionais, adotar políticas de perfil mais intervencionista e redistributivista. Já Dilma Rousseff, embora enfrentando contexto internacional francamente desfavorável, rompe explicitamente com o “confidence game” ao assumir o conjunto de políticas da Nova Matriz Macroeconômica. Na transição do primeiro para o segundo mandato, Dilma inverteu radicalmente a orientação das políticas, partindo para um forte ajuste fiscal e a ortodoxia monetária, o que acabou minando os poucos focos de sustentação política com os quais contava na sociedade. A crise econômica a partir do segundo semestre de 2014 sem dúvida contribuiu para dar origem à crise política, e esta por sua vez inviabilizou qualquer tentativa de implementação de políticas para reverter o quadro de crise econômica. O impeachment de Dilma, por fim, interrompe o projeto desenvolvimentista do PT, permitindo a emergência de novos atores políticos.

Nationalism, Economic Liberalism, and Populism in the Bolsonaro Government

“…The populist roots of Bolsonaro’s electoral victory reach back to the years prior to the presidential race, when grassroots dissatisfaction with the political establishment was already evident and brought together heterogeneous movements in opposition to the government (see Laclau, 2005). This scenario took shape with the protests of June 2013 and continued through the developments from Operation Car Wash and the severe political and economic crisis that assailed the country (Paula, Santos, and Moura, 2020) and culminated in the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff in 2016 and the consequent rise of Michel Temer to the presidency—a position in which he would become the world’s most unpopular leader (DW, 2017).…”

“… 3. Paula et al (2020) show evidence that Operation Car Wash contributed to generating and worsening the economic crisis in 2015 and 2016, which adversely affected the civil construction and oil and gas sectors and caused abrupt declines in company revenues and employment in those industries. See also Augusto Jr, Gabrielli, and Alonso Jr (2021). …”

Development Trajectories and Institutional Reform in Brazil: The Duality Problem Revisited in the Twenty-First Century

“…The continuity of the macroeconomic policy under the FHC and Lula governments, during the emergence of the commodities boom cycle pushed by the Chinese phenomena, compatibilized restrictive macroeconomics, and burgeoning welfare expenditure. The neoliberal institutional reforms of the FHC government turned out to be feasible in the contextual conditions of the Lula era (for an analysis of the PT "socio-developmentalism" see de Paula, Santos, and Moura 2020). Nonetheless, the Lula administration implemented significant changes in the microeconomic agenda.…”