The diffusion of online shopping in Australia: Comparing the Bass, Logistic and Gompertz growth models

Abstract

is currently employed by a major multinational telecommunications company in a senior management role. His research has been published in international academic journals and proceedings of international conferences. His research and professional interests are focused on direct and database marketing, data mining, empirical model comparison and modelling the diffusion of new products and technologies. Greg Elliottis a Professor of Business (Marketing) at Macquarie University, Australia. He has held academic positions at a number of Australian and overseas universities. His research has been concentrated in the fields of marketing theory, financial services, services marketing and international marketing. He is also active in researching Chinese consumer behaviour.Correspondence: Greg Elliott, Marketing and Management, Macquarie University, Herring Road, North Ryde, NSW, 2109, Australia ABSTRACT The results of past studies that compared the performance of alternative growth models are generally inconclusive. The objective of the current study is to provide further empirical evidence regarding the performance of three popular growth curves, namely, the Bass, Logistic and Gompertz models in the context of online shopping diffusion in Australia. The results of model fitting to an online shopping time series (1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009) show that all three models represent the diffusion curve quite well and adequately; however, the Bass model described the online shopping diffusion curve more accurately than the other two models. Forecasting with early diffusion data (1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002) suggests that the Bass, Logistic and Gompertz models are unable to adequately describe the diffusion curve from limited data. Nevertheless, the Bass model with the adjusted market potential coefficient (m) produced forecast accuracy that is comparable to the Bass model fitted to the full data (1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009). Overall, our results suggest that the Bass model outperforms the Logistic and Gompertz models.

The influence of home shopping television network impulse buying on product shortages

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“…Over the years, the Verhulst’s equation has been applied in the study of various diffusion trends including telecommunication systems (Jha and Saha, 2020; Gamboa and Otero, 2009), online shopping (Naseri and Elliott, 2013) and production innovations (Gurbaxani, 1990). In the field of certifications and standards, the logistic equation has been used to shed light on the dissemination of ISO 9001 (Franceschini et al , 2006), ISO 14001 (Marimon et al , 2011), GRI (Alonso-Almeida et al , 2014) and SA 8000 (Llach et al , 2015).…”

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