The diplomatic burden of pandemics: lessons from malaria

Abstract

This note seeks to understand the extent of the disruptions to international relations caused by pandemics, focusing on one globally-endemic disease: malaria. We posit that longstanding diseases such as malaria have the potential to undermine the political ties of nation states, as well as the many benefits of these connections. Our argument is tested empirically using both directed-dyadic and monadic data, while incorporating methods that account for endogeneity and other relevant concerns. We find that the geographic malaria rates of a country not only serve to historically discourage foreign governments from establishing diplomatic outposts on a country's soil, but also lead to an aggregate decrease in the total diplomatic missions that a country receives. We then discuss the current implications of these findings.

COVID-19, state capacity, and political violence by non-state actors

“…For example, a study by Gallup & Sachs (2001) showed that during the latter part of the 20th century, malarial countries grew 1.3% less per person per year compared with non-malarial states, even after accounting for initial poverty, economic policy, tropical location, and life expectancy. Similarly, Bagozzi & Koren (2021) find that an increase from minimum to maximum in a given state's malarial prevalence decreases the probability that affected states will receive a diplomatic mission from another state by 6-7%. Diseases such as HIV/AIDS, malaria, tuberculosis, influenza, cholera, and SARS have all reached pandemic levels in the last century with devastating effects (Bagozzi & Koren, 2021).…”

“…Similarly, Bagozzi & Koren (2021) find that an increase from minimum to maximum in a given state's malarial prevalence decreases the probability that affected states will receive a diplomatic mission from another state by 6-7%. Diseases such as HIV/AIDS, malaria, tuberculosis, influenza, cholera, and SARS have all reached pandemic levels in the last century with devastating effects (Bagozzi & Koren, 2021). Developing, and especially conflict-torn countries with already weak infrastructures, poor safety nets, and shaky health systems, bear a much greater cost of pandemics and often suffer from graver long-term consequences of diseases and pandemics (Ataguba, 2020).…”

“…One type of disaster that has received surprisingly little attention until recently is disease. Like other unplanned disasters, disease outbreak, and in particular pandemics -outbreaks that affect wide geographic areas and impact the lives of hundreds of thousands if not millions of individuals (Bagozzi & Koren, 2021) -is often difficult to predict and challenging to mitigate. Widespread disease, especially if it becomes endemic (constantly present), can have major negative socioeconomic impacts on states, especially those states with limited state capacity and resources (Bagozzi & Koren, 2021;Gallup & Sachs, 2001).…”

A Scoping Review on Malaria Prevention and Control Intervention in Fragile and Conflict-Affected States (FCAS): A Need for Renewed Focus to Enhance International Cooperation

“…However, Koreans faced the brunt of the malaria epidemic, which was worsened in many regions by agricultural and industrial expansion, and, eventually, by the military government established in 1938 [ 23 ]. This highlights the need for a holistic approach to the SDGs, recognising that addressing health challenges like malaria requires the involvement of multiple sectors beyond healthcare [ 24 , 25 ].…”