The disappearance of ice cover on temperate lakes (Central Europe) as a result of climate warming

Ptak, Mariusz; Sojka, Mariusz

doi:10.1111/geoj.12385

Cited by 14 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 52 publications

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“…It is characteristic that in the case of winter and early spring months (Jan-Mar), trends of changes in water temperature are not statistically significant. This is related to the ice phenomena occurring during the period, which effectively determine the aforementioned situation due to water cooling and its isolation from external conditions [57,58]. This results in the lack of evident responses in the river ecosystems to changes in climate elements.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Possibilities of River Water Temperature Reconstruction Using Statistical Models in the Context of Long-Term Thermal Regime Changes Assessment

Sojka

Ptak

2022

Applied Sciences

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Water temperature in rivers is the key property determining the biotic and abiotic processes occurring in these ecosystems. In many regions of the world, the significant lack of measurement data is a serious problem. This paper presents reconstruction of water temperature for selected Polish rivers with monitoring discontinued in the period 2015–2020. Information regarding air temperature and water temperature in lakes provided the basis for the comparison of three models: multiple linear regression, random forest regression, and multilayer perceptron network. The results show that the best reconstruction results were obtained with a multilayer perceptron network model based on water temperatures in the lake and air temperatures from three meteorological stations. The average values of mean error, root mean square error and standard error were for the rivers in Poland: 1.52 °C, 5.03%, and 0.47 °C. The course of mean yearly water temperature in the years 1987–2020 showed a statistically significant increase from 0.18 to 0.49 °C per decade. The results show that the largest increases occurred in June, August, September, November, and December.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Possibilities of River Water Temperature Reconstruction Using Statistical Models in the Context of Long-Term Thermal Regime Changes Assessment

Sojka

Ptak

2022

Applied Sciences

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“…Marszelewski and Skowron (2006) present the relationships of both the number of days with ice and maximum ice thickness, with winter air temperature for Lake Łebsko. Ptak and Sojka (2021) show a successive decline in the ice extent on lakes Jamno and Łebsko due to climate warming. Shortening ice cover periods on Pol-ish coastal lakes due to air temperature warning expected in the 21 st century is confirmed by numerical studies (Piccolroaz et al, 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Relationships between air temperature and ice conditions on the southern Baltic coastal lakes in the context of climate change

2022

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Shallow, lagoonal coastal lakes of the Southern Baltic are exceptionally susceptible to atmospheric factors. This work examines the influence of winter air temperatures in Ustka on ice parameters (dates of first ice occurrence and last ice disappearance, ice season duration, number of days with ice, and maximum ice thickness) on Southern Baltic coastal lakes (Jamno, Bukowo, Gardno, Łebsko), and trends displayed by changes in these parameters over the period spanning 1960/61-2019/20. The research data was retrieved from the archives of Institute of Meteorology and Water Management – National Research Institute. As a first step of the analysis, we investigated the statistical relationships in spatial and temporal variations in winter air temperature and coastal lake ice parameters. Correlation and regression method was employed to determine the influence of air temperature on coastal lake ice conditions. Correlation and determination coefficients were calculated, and linear regression equations were determined. The statistical significance of the observed relationships was assessed using Fisher-Snedecor test. Additionally, linear trend models were constructed. Our analysis indicates that from 1960/61 to 2019/20, the average rate of increase in winter temperature (December-March) in Ustka equalled 0.04°C ⋅year-1. The correlation coefficients for air temperature versus ice parameters were highly statistically significant (p<0.001). The strongest relationships (with correlation coefficients below -0.90) occurred between air temperature and number of days with ice. Ice season duration and number of days with ice are both closely linked with last ice disappearance date and ice thickness. Our analysis shows that a 1°C increase in average seasonal air temperature will result in the number of days with ice on the studied coastal lakes becoming reduced by 16-17 days. All trends in ice parameters indicate a mildening of ice conditions. Most of the assessed trends are statistically significant. The strongest trends were observed for ice season duration, and indicate its shortening toward the east, from 0.66 day ⋅year-1 (Lake Jamno) to 1.16 day ⋅year-1 (Lake Łebsko). All correlation coefficients for ice trends were found to increase eastward, which could be explained by an increasing influence of the warming climate over the Southern Baltic in this direction. The strong relationships between air temperature and Southern Baltic coastal lake ice parameters, and the determined rate of changes may have a significance for forecasting, as the shifting dates of ice formation and disappearance on lakes are highly important for the lake hydrodynamics, and the functioning of aquatic ecosystems.

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“…Initially, their primary motives were practical (related to transportation and lake fishing) as well as religious [1]. Nowadays, these phenomena also attract considerable interest from lake researchers worldwide [2][3][4][5][6][7][8]. The formation of lake ice is an inherent feature of lakes and other water bodies located in middle and high latitudes, and this phenomenon plays a key role in the functioning of limnic ecosystems in these regions [9].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Research into ice phenomena occurring in lakes and other water bodies situated in the temperate climate zone covers a broad range of issues. Among the most frequently discussed research problems is the possibility of using long-term ice phenology as an indicator of contemporary climate change [1,5,8,[14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The purpose of applying a number of statistical analyses was to identify variable structures that explain the relationships between the features of the studied water bodies and their ice regime (with a particular focus on average and maximum ice thickness). Filling an important research gap in the use of advanced tools of statistical analysis in the study of ice phenomena is of cognitive, methodological, and application importance [3,7,8,27,44]. Knowledge of the phenology of ice phenomena is useful not only for determining climate variability in the region over the past last years: the results of such studies can be successfully used to predict the course of limnic processes (e.g., the variability of mixing processes and thermal and oxygen conditions); this is a new aspect of limnological studies [37].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Classification of Water Reservoirs in Terms of Ice Phenomena Using Advanced Statistical Methods—The Case of the Silesian Upland (Southern Poland)

Rzetala,

Topolski,

Solarski

2023

Water

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Ice phenomena occurring in water bodies are an important indicator of natural changes (e.g., climate change) and the possibilities for economic use of water bodies (e.g., using the ice cover); hence, there is a need to adopt new advanced statistical methods for the purpose of their analysis and assessment. Material for this study was collected for three winter seasons in 39 water bodies in the Silesian Upland (southern Poland). Nine variables were used in the analysis, of which three pertained to the features of the water bodies studied (surface area, mean depth, the amount of water retained), and six pertained patterns to of ice phenomena (average near-surface water temperature during ice phenomena, average and maximum ice thickness, the number of days with ice phenomena, the number of days with ice cover, and average thickness of the snow accumulated on ice). The centroid class principal component analysis (CCPCA) method was found to be the most precise of the five methods used in the study for classifying water bodies in terms of their ice regimes. It enabled the most accurate division of the group of water bodies covered by the study in terms of their ice regimes in conjunction with their morphometric features and hydrological types. The presented method of classifying water bodies using advanced statistical methods is an original proposal, which was used for the first time in limnological research and in the analysis of ice phenomena.

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The disappearance of ice cover on temperate lakes (Central Europe) as a result of climate warming

Cited by 14 publications

References 52 publications

Possibilities of River Water Temperature Reconstruction Using Statistical Models in the Context of Long-Term Thermal Regime Changes Assessment

Possibilities of River Water Temperature Reconstruction Using Statistical Models in the Context of Long-Term Thermal Regime Changes Assessment

Relationships between air temperature and ice conditions on the southern Baltic coastal lakes in the context of climate change

Classification of Water Reservoirs in Terms of Ice Phenomena Using Advanced Statistical Methods—The Case of the Silesian Upland (Southern Poland)

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