The Distribution Range of Populus euphratica Oliv. (Salicaceae) Will Decrease Under Future Climate Change in Northwestern China

Abstract

Climate change has been regarded as a primary threat to biodiversity at local, regional, and global scales. Populus euphratica Oliv. is one of the main constructive species in dryland regions and has a key role in regulating ecosystem processes and services. However, there is a knowledge gap regarding the spatial distribution of habitat suitability of P. euphratica and how it will be affected by future climate change. Based on the distribution records collected from an online database and specialized literature, we applied an optimized MaxEnt model to predict the distribution range of P. euphratica in China under four climate change scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585) for both current and future (2090s) conditions. We found that (1) future climate change would reduce the adaptability of P. euphratica, resulting in a significant decrease in its distribution area; (2) water availability had the most important effect on P. euphratica distribution; (3) the habitat for P. euphratica would shift northwestward and contract towards lower elevations closer to rivers in the future. These findings can provide a reference for developing long-term biodiversity conservation and management strategies in arid regions.