The Distributional and Multi-Sectoral Impacts of Rainfall Shocks: Evidence From Computable General Equilibrium Modelling for the Awash Basin, Ethiopia

Borgomeo, Edoardo; Vadheim, Bryan; Woldeyes, Firew Bekele; Alamirew, Tena; Tamru, Seneshaw; Charles, Katrina; Kebede, Seifu; Walker, Oliver

doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2017.11.038

Cited by 56 publications

(36 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…Furthermore, the vulnerability to rainfall variability varies broadly [55,56]. Thus, it is not surprising that the influences of rainfall variability are experienced differently in different environments [57][58][59]. Some rural water supply services are facing pressures from population growth and constraints on their ability to secure further water sources; in many areas, rainfall variability is expected to worsen the circumstances [60,61].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seasonal and Annual Rainfall Variability and Their Impact on Rural Water Supply Services in the Wami River Basin, Tanzania

Twisa

Buchroithner

2019

Water

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In some parts of Africa, rainfall variability has resulted in widespread droughts and floods, thus posing a substantial challenge to water availability in rural areas, especially drinking water. Therefore, due to increasing water demands, increases in the population, and economic development, water supply systems are under constant stress. One of the critical uncertainties surrounding the effects of rainfall variability in Africa is the significant impact that it imposes on rural water supply services. The present study analyzes the trends in annual and seasonal rainfall time series in the Wami River Basin to see if there have been any significant changes in the patterns during the period 1983–2017 and how they affect the access to water supply services in rural areas. The study analyzes the trends of rainfall series of three stations using simple regression, Mann–Kendal Test and Sen’s Slope Estimator. The water point mapping datasets were analyzed considering seasonal variation. The analysis showed a statistically significant positive trend in annual rainfall at Kongwa and March–April–May (MAM) seasonal rainfall at Dakawa. The maximum increase in annual rainfall occurred at Kongwa (5.3 mm year−1) and for MAM seasonal data at Dakawa (4.1 mm year−1). Water points were found to be significantly affected by seasonal changes, both in terms of availability and quality of water. There also exists a strong relationship between rural water services and seasons.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seasonal and Annual Rainfall Variability and Their Impact on Rural Water Supply Services in the Wami River Basin, Tanzania

Twisa

Buchroithner

2019

Water

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“…Reference trends from ERA-Interim for the Awash basin: Annual, 0.031 per year, p = .001; MAM, 0.051 per year, p = .006; JAS, 0.007 per year, p = .725. Reference trends from ERA-Interim for Northwest Ethiopia: annual, 0.017 per year, p = .020; AM, 0.039 per year, p = .034; JJAS, 0.005 per year, p = .564 for specific crops and rainfall is correlated with the success of certain crops in this season (Borgomeo et al, 2018). Changes in the onset rainy season could have dramatic effects on the ability to grow certain crops or require a significant adaptation effort.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The connection between climate and humanitarian disaster has focused on Ethiopia more than almost any other country in Africa, partly because of a number of drought events that have ended in famines which have required humanitarian intervention (Conway and Schipper, 2011). A strong connection between the health of the Ethiopian economy and climate has also been made in the past (Grey and Sadoff, 2007) although the nuances of this connection are complicated (Lewis, 2017;Borgomeo et al, 2018). A number of studies have highlighted the need to understand the meteorology of drought events, the spatial heterogeneity of such events, and what adaptation might be necessary to reduce future risk (Viste et al, 2013;Lewis, 2017).…”

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confidence: 99%

Evaluating the CMIP5 ensemble in Ethiopia: Creating a reduced ensemble for rainfall and temperature in Northwest Ethiopia and the Awash basin

Dyer

Washington

Taye

2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The purpose of this study was to evaluate the historical skill of models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) in two regions of Ethiopia: northwestern Ethiopia and the Awash, one of the main Ethiopian river basins. An ensemble of CMIP5 models was first selected so that atmosphere-only (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project, AMIP) and fully coupled simulations could be directly compared, assessing the effects of coupled model sea surface temperature (SST) biases. The annual cycle, seasonal biases, trends, and variability were used as metrics of model skill. In the Awash basin, both coupled and AMIP simulations had late Belg or March-May (MAM) rainy seasons. In connection to this, most models also missed the June rainfall minimum entirely. Northwest Ethiopia, which has a unimodal rainfall cycle in observations, is shown to have bimodal seasonality in models, even in the AMIP simulations. Significant AMIP biases in these regions show that model biases are not related to SST biases alone. Similarly, a clear connection between model resolution and skill was not found. Models simulated temperature with more skill than rainfall, but trends showed an underestimation in Belg (MAM/April-May (AM)) trends, and an overestimation in Kiremt or July-September (JAS/June-September (JJAS)) trends. The models which were shown to have the most skill in a range of categories were HadGEM2-AO, GFDL-CM3, and MPI-ESM-MR. The biases and discrepancies in model skill for different metrics of rainfall and temperature found in this study provide a useful basis for a process-based analysis of the CMIP5 ensemble in Ethiopia.

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“…This finding is consistent with that of Chalise et al [6], who found similar results in Nepal. Moreover, Borgomeo et al [35] showed that climate change not only has adverse influences on the agricultural sector, but also on industrial and service subsectors in Ethiopia. Arndt et al [18] stressed that climate change effects in Ghana, extend beyond agricultural-based sectors to all other sectors, namely, non-agricultural sectors which include manufacturing, mining, energy, and services.…”

Section: Economic Sectoral Effects Of Climate Changementioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, the authors were not concerned with rural-urban considerations. Strikingly, Borgomeo et al [35] found that climate change via precipitation reduction could benefit poor households located in drought-prone areas and who cultivate cereals. They show that rural households living in arid areas are more resilient to the climate change effects than those living in favorable agricultural areas.…”

Section: Economic Distributional Effects Of Climate Change On Househomentioning

confidence: 99%

Economy-Wide Effects of Climate Change in Benin: An Applied General Equilibrium Analysis

et al. 2019

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This research analyzes the economic effects of climate change-induced crop yield losses in Benin. As agriculture is a large sector in Benin, the climate change-induced crop yield losses are expected to affect the entire economy as well as household welfare in both rural and urban areas. The paper applies a dynamic general equilibrium model and simulates productivity shocks in the agricultural sector derived from climate change scenarios for Benin. The findings show that climate change-induced crop yield losses reduce domestic agricultural outputs by 4.4% and the nonagricultural output by 0.9% on average by 2025. While export supply decrease by 25.5%, import demand increases by 4.9% on average by 2025. As price of labour and capital decline, household income drop for all household groups by 2.5% on average. Ultimately, household welfare decline for all household groups by 2.7% on average. Rural and particularly poor households are projected to experience the worst adverse effects of climate change-induced crop yield losses. The results show that without adaptive strategies to cope with climate change, economic growth and household welfare will decline even further by 2035 and 2045. Subsequently, the paper suggests that adaptation strategies are needed not only at the national level to overcome the projected negative effects on macroeconomic indicators, but also at household level to enhance the adaptative capacity of households, especially the poor households living in rural areas.In Benin, previous studies showed that yields of major food crops are likely to decline with implications for food security, farm incomes, and household welfare [8,9]. The high potential impact of climate change in Benin is due to the size of the agricultural sector in the economy. As of 2016, agriculture accounts for 23% of the Benin national GDP, 83% of total merchandise exports, and 41% of total employment [10]. Hence, the disruptive effects of climate change in the agricultural sector are felt beyond that sector in the entire economy. There are both direct and indirect effects of climate change on the agricultural sector. Direct effects include changes in agricultural outputs. Indirect effects encompass commodity and factor price changes affecting ultimately household incomes and expenditures.In this paper, the economy-wide implications of climate change in Benin are analyzed and quantified. While vulnerability and adaptation aspects of climate change have been studied in Benin [11][12][13], little is known about its economy-wide effects. In order to capture these effects, the study employs a single-country computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The CGE framework allows to examine the interdependent links between supply and demand of agricultural products, on the one hand, and between agricultural markets and the rest of the economy, on the other hand [14]. The remainder of this paper is structured as follows: Section 2 presents the existing literature on the economy-wide effects of climate change, while Section 3 describes the ...

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The Distributional and Multi-Sectoral Impacts of Rainfall Shocks: Evidence From Computable General Equilibrium Modelling for the Awash Basin, Ethiopia

Cited by 56 publications

References 46 publications

Seasonal and Annual Rainfall Variability and Their Impact on Rural Water Supply Services in the Wami River Basin, Tanzania

Seasonal and Annual Rainfall Variability and Their Impact on Rural Water Supply Services in the Wami River Basin, Tanzania

Evaluating the CMIP5 ensemble in Ethiopia: Creating a reduced ensemble for rainfall and temperature in Northwest Ethiopia and the Awash basin

Economy-Wide Effects of Climate Change in Benin: An Applied General Equilibrium Analysis

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