The influence of monetary policy depends on the effectiveness of the interest rate pass-through, that is the size and the speed to which changes in the central bank policy actions are transmitted to bank retail interest rates. The objective of this paper is to investigate the relationship between the policy-controlled interest rates (Repo and Treasury bill rates) and the bank interest rates (interbank, deposit and lending rates) in Rwanda with the view to empirically examine the size and speed of the interest rate pass-through in the long run and short run and determine whether the pass-through process is symmetric or asymmetric. The empirical results of the paper, using monthly data covering the period from January 2008 to December 2017 indicate that the interbank, deposit and policy rates are cointegrated, hence a non-linear error correction model has been used to assess the asymmetric adjustment dynamics to long-run equilibrium. By contrast, the lending rates were found to be cointegrated with none of the selected policy rates; hence the interest rate pass-through has been estimated by means of a transformed autoregressive distributed lag model. The empirical results of the study show that the estimated long-run as well as the short run interest rate pass-through of the selected policy rates to deposit and lending rates is weak and sluggish. Regarding the asymmetric adjustment process of the bank rates, empirical results show that depending on the policy rate, the interbank and deposit rates react differently following a negative and a positive shock in the policy rates; but no evidence was provided for asymmetric adjustment of the lending rates.* This research was supported by a grant from the African Research Consortium (AERC). Special thanks to resource persons and researchers for their helpful discussions and suggestions during different AERC Bi-Annual workshops.
I. IntroductionThe interest rate pass-through has received a great deal of attention in theoretical and empirical research on monetary policy making. However, while the bulk of the literature on the issue was devoted to industrial countries, it is only recently that a few studies focused on emerging and developing countries. The interest rate pass-through, defined as the extent to which changes in the policy rate are transmitted to bank retail interest rates, i.e. the deposit and lending rates, is a key element in the monetary transmission mechanism and the effectiveness of monetary policy. Central banks use the policy rate to influence the short-term money market rates which in turn affect bank retail rates; in the end, banks' decisions on the yield of their assets and liabilities affect the behavior of deposit holders and borrowers on savings, investment and consumption. A fuller and faster interest rate pass-through enhances the effectiveness of monetary policy and improves the capacity of the central bank to achieve its macroeconomic goals of stabilizing aggregate output and prices. Therefore, the determination of the size and speed of the int...