Abstract. We discuss the development and calibration of a model for predicting seepage into underground openings. Seepage is a key factor affecting the performance of the potential nuclear-waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. Three-dimensional numerical models were developed to simulate field tests in which water was released from boreholes above excavated niches. Data from air-injection tests were geostatistically analyzed to infer the heterogeneous structure of the fracture permeability field. The heterogeneous continuum model was then calibrated against the measured amount of water that seeped into the opening. This approach resulted in the estimation of model-related, seepage-specific parameters on the scale of interest.The ability of the calibrated model to predict seepage was examined by comparing calculated with measured seepage rates from additional experiments conducted in different portions of the fracture network. We conclude that an effective capillary-strength parameter is suitable to characterize seepage-related features and processes for use in a prediction model of average seepage into potential waste emplacement drifts.Keywords: capillary barrier, unsaturated zone, parameter estimation * Corresponding author: Fax: +1-510-486-5686; e-mail: SAFinsterle@lbl.gov 2
IntroductionSeepage of water into emplacement drifts for nuclear waste is considered a key factor affecting the long-term safety of a potential repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. The number of waste packages contacted by water, the corrosion rate of engineered barriers and waste containers, the dissolution and mobilization of radioactive contaminants, and their release and migration towards the accessible environment all depend on the rate, the chemical composition, and the spatial and temporal distribution of water seeping into the waste-emplacement drifts.Accurately estimating seepage into underground openings excavated from an unsaturated fractured formation requires process understanding on a wide range of scales. Processes to be studied include (1) the mountain-scale distribution of percolation flux, (2) the intermediate-scalechanneling, bifurcation, and dispersion of flow in the fracture network, (3) the small-scale capillary-barrier effect in the boundary layer around the opening, and (4) the micro-scale phenomena of film flow, drop formation, and drop detachment at the drift surface. In addition, the thermodynamic environment in the drift (temperature, relative humidity, ventilation regime, etc.) must be known as it impacts the boundary condition at the drift wall.Developing a comprehensive, physically based seepage model that covers all scales discussed above would require a large amount of characterization data that are difficult or practically impossible to measure in the field. Moreover, a suite of model assumptions would have to be made to relate fracture and surface properties to hydrogeologic model parameters.Finally, the spatial and temporal resolution of a numerical model necessary to accurately and explicitly ca...