The divided public: Dynamics of heterogeneity of European public opinion towards European integration

Abstract

Much of empirical research on public opinion is dominated by a focus on individual-level determinants of support for, or opposition to, the European Union, missing the heterogeneity that lies within and between societies. Our article aims to understand whether national publics are increasingly heterogeneous in their opinions towards Europe, and if so, how this heterogeneity manifests itself. To do so, we rely on a Eurobarometer trend file containing data on the 28 member states between 1994 and 2019. The results show that the degree of popular dissensus over European Union integration has gone deeper since the Maastricht Treaty and reached a peak during the years of the Great Recession (2010 to 2013). The study also demonstrates that the public opinion dynamics triggering heterogeneity vary across clusters of European Union member states.