Summary Breast cancer screening is generally accepted as an effective means of reducing breast cancer mortality in post-menopausal women. In this analysis the impact of nationwide screening on clinical medicine and the effects for the women involved are quantified. Effect estimates are based on results from screening trials in Utrecht (DOM-project) and Nijmegen, and on bi-annual screening of women aged 50-70. The consequences for health care are based on generally accepted assessment and treatment policies. The number of assessment procedures for non-palpable lesions will increase by 12% per year in the build-up period, and will remain slightly higher. The total number of biopsies in a real population is expected to decrease. Screening will lead to a shift in primary treatment modalities, as 15% of mastectomies will be replaced by breast conserving therapy. The temporary increase in the demand for primary treatment in the first years will be followed by a decrease in the demand for treating women with advanced disease. Favourable effects outweigh the inevitable unfavourable effects, with high quality screening and an appropriate invitation system. Breast cancer screening can also be recommended after considering other consequences than mortality reduction.Several trials have shown that mammographic screening of post-menopausal women reduces breast cancer mortality (Shapiro et al., 1982;Verbeek et al., 1984;Collette et al., 1984;Tabar et al., 1985;UK Trial 1988;Andersson et al., 1988). The introduction of a national programme in the United Kingdom, offering tri-annual screening to women aged 50-65, would result in a mortality reduction of 8% (Knox, 1988). In the Netherlands with bi-annual screening of women aged 50-70, this figure would be 12% (van der Maas et al., 1989).Although mortality reduction is the fundamental effect (Day et al., 1989), there is much debate about other desirable and undesirable consequences of breast cancer screening (Warren, 1988;Skrabanek, 1988). However, publications which quantify these consequences are lacking. Starting to screen will result in a temporary increase in the number of women with newly diagnosed breast cancer. Detecting these cancers at an earlier stage will affect the type of assessment and treatment. Mass screening will also generate referrals of women, who appear to have no breast cancer (false positives) (Forrest, 1986
Assessment and excision biopsyIn assessing breast abnormalities, at least three successive steps were distinguished: physical examination, clinical mammography and excision biopsy (with possible specimen radiography). Additional possibilities which were taken into account for palpable lesions only were fine needle aspiration (cytology) and ultrasound.Estimates of the number and type of these procedures used in the situation without screening were based on the following sources: general practitioners' registry (Trouw, 1986); the radioactivity and radiation application division of the Ministry of Welfare, Health and Cultural Affairs; the Central Office ...