The Dosage Breeding Theory for Horse Racing Predictions

Gramm, Marshall; Ziemba, William T.

doi:10.1016/b978-044450744-0.50018-4

Cited by 6 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…Speed versus stamina is measured by a dosage index using five categories-brilliant, intermediate, classic, solid, and professional-with more stamina and less speed in the latter categories. For more information, readers are referred to the work by Hausch, Bain & Ziemba (2006) and Gramm & Ziemba (2008), who study this by merging the odds (prices) with expert opinion (breeding measured by dosage), and the comprehensive work by Roman (2016). (For details on how to calculate the dosage index and its use, especially in the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes, see the Supplemental Materials.…”

Section: Breedingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pari-Mutuel Betting Markets: Racetracks and Lotteries Revisited

Ziemba

2023

Annu. Rev. Financ. Econ.

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This survey discusses the state of the art in research in racetrack and lottery investment markets. Market efficiency and the pricing of various wagers are studied along with new developments since the Thaler & Ziemba (1988) review. The weak form inefficient market pricing approach using stochastic programming optimization models changed racetrack betting from handicapping to a financial market allowing professional syndicates to operate as hedge funds. Topics discussed include arbitrage and risk arbitrage, syndicates, betting exchange rebates, behavioral biases, and fundamental and mispricing information in racetrack and lottery markets. Similar models can be used to successfully trade stock market anomalies. Supplemental Materials are included online.

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Section: Breedingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pari-Mutuel Betting Markets: Racetracks and Lotteries Revisited

Ziemba

2023

Annu. Rev. Financ. Econ.

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“…The speed versus stamina is measured by a dosage index using the five categories: brilliant, intermediate, classic, solid and professional with more stamina and less speed in the latter categories. See Hausch, Bain and Ziemba (2006) and Gramm and Ziemba (2008) who study this by merging the odds (prices) with expert opinion (breeding measured by dosage) and the comprehensive book Roman (2016).…”

Section: Ziembamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Since the horses have never run this distance before, a forecast of how they might do from their breeding is helpful. See Hausch, Bain and Ziemba (2006) and Gramm and Ziemba (2008) who study this by merging the odds (prices) with expert opinion (breeding measured by dosage).…”

Section: Ziembamentioning

confidence: 99%

Parimutuel Betting Markets: Racetracks and Lotteries Revisited

Ziemba

2021

SSRN Journal

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“…In Ziemba (2016) I revisited and expanded the discussion of the InnoALM model and discussed its use in retirement planning. Gramm and Ziemba (2008) discussed and reviewed the fundamental handicapping ideas that lead to better winning probability estimates in major horse races such as the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes, where the horses have never run as far and many never do so again. Many of these races for various years are described in Ziemba (2018a).…”

Section: Bill Ziembamentioning

confidence: 99%