The Double‐Edged Sword of Coercion: Cross‐Strait Relations After the 2016 Taiwan Elections

Abstract

Whereas “optimists” argue that military conflict in the Taiwan Strait has become increasingly unlikely, “pessimists” warn that conflict remains a real option. The landslide victory for the pro‐independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) of President Tsai Ing‐wen in the January 2016 presidential and legislative elections adds fire to the debate. The DPP win makes a peaceful unification on China's terms an ever‐distant prospect. Since the election, Beijing's strategy has rested on pressuring Taipei into accepting the “1992 consensus” as the precondition for constructive relations. However, this article argues that strategies of “coercion” are a double‐edged sword for China: its very success in deterring Taiwan from declaring formal independence has backfired as far as compelling the island from accepting unification on its terms. While pessimism about a new period of cross‐Strait tensions is premature, the Taiwan Strait remains a volatile regional flash point in East Asia.

Managing Escalation While Competing Effectively in the Indo-Pacific

“…Beijing has consistently viewed Tsai and the DPP as enemies of unification and, therefore, as implacable opponents of China and the CCP. 633 Although this view has not changed over the period in question, the DPP's influence over Taiwanese domestic politics (and its therefore power to implement its allegedly separatist agenda) has ebbed and flowed. The DPP took a serious beating in the 2018 midterm local elections, prompting Tsai to step down as the party's leader, and there was widespread speculation that the party might not be able to defeat its more pro-mainland rivals in the 2020 election.…”

A precarious regional flashpoint

“…Asian Politics & Policy (APP) has published numerous articles on Taiwan over the years. Schreer (2017) argued that cross‐strait relations have been fraught with hostility since the election of Democratic Progressive Party‐led governments since 2016. Strategies of coercion employed by Beijing are “double‐edged swords” as unification is being resisted by Taiwan under President Tsai Ing‐wen.…”