The doubling effect of COVID-19 cases on key health indicators

Petrof, Oana; Fajgenblat, Maxime; Neyens, Thomas; Molenberghs, Geert; Faes, Christel

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0275523

Cited by 2 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 28 publications

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“…An earlier study showed that increasing the number of tests helps to reduce the number of new COVID-19 cases [ 3 ]. Petrof et al [ 4 ] studied the effect of doubling of cases on key metrics, with the emphasis on hospitalizations and mortality. Demographic, social, health risk, medical and environmental factors influencing the risk of testing positive or negative were studied by Chaeau-Hyam et al [ 5 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A joint penalized spline smoothing model for the number of positive and negative COVID-19 tests

De Witte,

Abad,

Neyens

et al. 2024

PLoS ONE

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One of the key tools to understand and reduce the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus is testing. The total number of tests, the number of positive tests, the number of negative tests, and the positivity rate are interconnected indicators and vary with time. To better understand the relationship between these indicators, against the background of an evolving pandemic, the association between the number of positive tests and the number of negative tests is studied using a joint modeling approach. All countries in the European Union, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and Norway are included in the analysis. We propose a joint penalized spline model in which the penalized spline is reparameterized as a linear mixed model. The model allows for flexible trajectories by smoothing the country-specific deviations from the overall penalized spline and accounts for heteroscedasticity by allowing the autocorrelation parameters and residual variances to vary among countries. The association between the number of positive tests and the number of negative tests is derived from the joint distribution for the random intercepts and slopes. The correlation between the random intercepts and the correlation between the random slopes were both positive. This suggests that, when countries increase their testing capacity, both the number of positive tests and negative tests will increase. A significant correlation was found between the random intercepts, but the correlation between the random slopes was not significant due to a wide credible interval.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A joint penalized spline smoothing model for the number of positive and negative COVID-19 tests

De Witte,

Abad,

Neyens

et al. 2024

PLoS ONE

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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The Effect of Transborder Mobility on COVID-19 Incidences in Belgium

Brackx

Vanongeval

Natalia

et al. 2022

IJERPH

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Belgium is a geographically small country bordered by The Netherlands, France, Germany, and Luxembourg, with intense transborder mobility, defined as mobility in the border regions with neighboring countries. It is therefore of interest to examine how the 14-day COVID-19 confirmed case incidence in the border regions is influenced by that of the adjacent regions in the neighboring countries and thus, whether and how it differs from that in the adjacent non-border regions within Belgium. To this end, the 14-day COVID-19 confirmed case incidence is studied at the level of Belgian provinces, well-defined border areas within Belgium, and adjacent regions in the neighboring countries. Auxiliary information encompasses work-related border traffic, travel rates, the proportion of people with a different nationality, the stringency index of the non-pharmaceutical interventions, and the degree of urbanization at the level of the municipality. Especially in transnational urbanized areas such as between the Belgian and Dutch provinces of Limburg and between the Belgian province of Antwerp and the Dutch province of North Brabant, the impact on incidence is visible, at least at some points in time, especially when the national incidences differ between neighboring countries. In contrast, the intra-Belgian language border regions show very little transborder impact on the incidence curves, except around the Brussels capital region, leading to various periods where the incidences are very different in the Dutch-speaking north and the French-speaking south of Belgium. Our findings suggest that while travel restrictions may be needed at some points during a pandemic, a more fine-grained approach than merely closing national borders may be considered. At the same time, in border regions with considerable transborder mobility, it is recommended to coordinate the non-pharmaceutical interventions between the authorities of the various countries overlapping with the border region. While this seems logical, there are clear counterexamples, e.g., where non-essential shops, restaurants, and bars are closed in one country but not in the neighboring country.

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The doubling effect of COVID-19 cases on key health indicators

Cited by 2 publications

References 28 publications

A joint penalized spline smoothing model for the number of positive and negative COVID-19 tests

A joint penalized spline smoothing model for the number of positive and negative COVID-19 tests

The Effect of Transborder Mobility on COVID-19 Incidences in Belgium

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