The Drop in Crime Rates. A Multivariate Analysis of Long-Term Trends

Abstract

This paper confirms the hypothesis that crime is declining in westerns countries by analysing three representative methods of police registration of crime figures: the French "procedural "method, the "primie facie" method used in England and Wales, and the "dualize" model adopted in Spain. Based on the assumption that crime is a legal-cultural phenomenon, the main characteristics of each model are examined, and the conclusion can be reached that while comparing time series drawn up from annual figures of police recorded crime would be unrealistic, due to the historic peculiarities of each country, it is possible to compare the magnitude and the general trends and developments, as they are independent from data registration methods. The conclusion is that in the three models, it is possible to observe a fall in crime rates on a global level, the continuous emergence of types of crimes as a result of social change, improved practices in police registration and classification of data and, a growing interest among citizens in receiving reliable data.