The Duhem-Quine Thesis, Lakatos and the Appraisal of Theories in Macroeconomics

Cross, Rod

doi:10.2307/2232443

Cited by 223 publications

(39 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…The stepwise regression algorithm is a However, a theoretical straitjacket is likely to yield models that are slightly worse in terms of goodness of fit, but with greater simplicity in terms of the number of bi[s duc to the similar specifications invulved. This analysis of the Duhem-Quine problem avoids the pruhluns that result from a I,akatosian interpretation of scientitïc research prugrammes (advocated by Cross, 1982).13…”

Section: Siny~licirv Und the Duhem-quine Lhesirmentioning

confidence: 92%

Simplicity, Scientific Inference and Econometric Modelling

Keuzenkamp

McAleer

1995

The Economic Journal

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Section: Siny~licirv Und the Duhem-quine Lhesirmentioning

confidence: 92%

Simplicity, Scientific Inference and Econometric Modelling

Keuzenkamp

McAleer

1995

The Economic Journal

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“…Une telle approche se heurte selon l'auteur à la fragilité et à l'hétérogénéité des ensembles relationnels définis par un jeu d'interdépendances. Chaque ensemble économique fait système et il est particulièrement délicat d'isoler rigoureusement les variables explicatives (Cross, 1982). La diversité n'apparaît plus comme une aberration mais comme un élément constitutif du social.…”

Section: Historiciser Les Catégories De L'observateur Et Des Acteursunclassified

Éléments pour un institutionnalisme méthodologique : autonomie, variation d’échelle, réflexivité et abduction

Labrousse¹

2006

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“…It has been demonstrated that the deceptively simple hypothesis that demand for money is stable requires a proliferation of auxiliary hypotheses (Cross (1982) Chapter three will therefore devote a fair amount of space to extract background information on the Nigeria macro-financial system that will permit a meaningful test of the target hypothesis. The theory is 'the nut', econometric methods represent 'the hammer', and the recovery of meaning/id models in the Nigerian context is the 'anvil'.…”

Section: Empirical Specificationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It has been demonstrated that the deceptively simple hypothesis that demand for money is stable requires a proliferation of auxiliary hypotheses (Cross (1982) Smith (1994), 'this step requires theorists' models to reflect a close understanding of the circumstances that produced the observations' (p 129). In the words of Stanley (1998, p. 192, and 198), Chapter three will therefore devote a fair amount of space to extract background information on the Nigeria macro-financial system that will permit a meaningful test of the target hypothesis.…”

Section: Empirical Specificationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Since both the nut and the hammer are relatively well defined in the literature, some extra care is taken to establish the anvil, by giving detailed treatment to the auxiliary hypotheses 0 15 0 2 , O m to gain a close understanding of the circumstances that produced the observations. These relate to appropriate measures of the money stock, the purchasing power of money, the opportunity cost, and the transactions' variables in the Nigerian context (Cross (1982)). …”

Section: Empirical Specificationmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Another Look at the Transactions Demand for Money in Nigeria

Teriba¹

2002

SSRN Journal

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The full-text may be used and/or reproduced, and given to third parties in any format or medium, without prior permission or charge, for personal research or study, educational, or not-for-prot purposes provided that:• a full bibliographic reference is made to the original source• a link is made to the metadata record in Durham E-Theses• the full-text is not changed in any way The full-text must not be sold in any format or medium without the formal permission of the copyright holders.Please consult the full Durham E-Theses policy for further details.Academic Support Oce, Durham University, University Oce, Old Elvet, Durham DH1 3HP e-mail: e-theses.admin@dur.ac. ABSTRACTThis study sets out to model non-bank public's desired holdings of five different measures of money in the Nigerian economy. These are currency outside banks (COB), demand deposits (DD), narrow money (Ml), quasi money (QM), and broad money (M2).The study addresses many of the pitfalls inv Table 3.4: Scale variables 57 Table 3.4: Deflators 58 Table 3.5: Real monetary aggregates 60 Table 3.6: Interest rates and Spreads 61 Table 4.1: Selected Macroeconomic Indicators 69 Table 4.2: Summary statistics for long rate, short rate and spread 72 Table 4.3: Summary statistics for selected macroeconomic variables 73 Table 4.4a: Predicting GDP growth with spread 76 Table 4.4b: Predicting GDP growth with combined model 76 Table 4.5a: Predicting domestic absorption growth with spread 77 Table 4.5b: Predicting domestic absorption growth with combined model 78 Table 4.6a: Predicting manufacturing growth with spread 78 Table 4.6b: Predicting manufacturing growth with combined model 79 Table 4.7a: Predicting industrial output growth with spread 79 Table 4.7b: Predicting industrial output growth with combined model 79 Table 4.8a: Predicting gross capital formation growth with spread 80 Table 4.8b: Predicting gross capital formation with combined model 80 Table 4.9a: Predicting private consumption growth with spread 81 Table 4.9b: Predicting private consumption with combined model 81 Table 4.10: Out-of-sample forecasting performance of the spread 84 Table 5.1a: Specification Searches for Ml: GDP as Scale Variable 91 Table 5.1b: Specification Searches for Ml: Domestic Absorption as Scale Variable 95 Table 5.2: Granger Causality test for the Ml Cointegrating Vector 98 Table 5.3a: Selecting the order of the variable model 100 Table 5.3b: Deterministic components in the cointegrating relations 100 Table 5.4b: Associated long run coefficients of Ml models 106 Table 5.5a: Summary of the findings of Gerrard and Godfrey 107 Table 5.6a: Error correction models for Ml 109 Table 5.7a: Summary statistics for two congruent models 111 Table 5.7b: Choice criteria for the two Ml models 112 10 COPYRIGHTThe copyright of this thesis rests with the author. No quotation from it should be published without his prior written consent, and information derived from it should be suitably acknowledged. will merely be identified. We will leave the detailed modelli...

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The Duhem-Quine Thesis, Lakatos and the Appraisal of Theories in Macroeconomics

Cited by 223 publications

References 35 publications

Simplicity, Scientific Inference and Econometric Modelling

Simplicity, Scientific Inference and Econometric Modelling

Éléments pour un institutionnalisme méthodologique : autonomie, variation d’échelle, réflexivité et abduction

Another Look at the Transactions Demand for Money in Nigeria

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