The dynamic relationship between asylum applications and recognition rates in Europe (1987–2010)

Abstract

The intensity of asylum flows over the last 20 years represents a significant challenge to national and European policy making. This article studies the dynamic reciprocal effects between asylum applications and recognition rates in 29 European countries over 24 years. Furthermore, it explores the impact of the national economic and political context on these two aspects of asylum policy. Using a wide range of statistical models and approaches, the article reveals that asylum applications exert a negative effect on recognition rates, and recognition rates exert a positive effect on applications. However, despite their statistical significance, the effects are rather small and mostly related to between-country rather than within-country variation, which implies that they are of limited practical significance. Unemployment is only weakly related to recognition rates and not at all to application shares, while government positions favoring immigration and multiculturalism have no effect on asylum application shares and recognition rates.

Do asylum recognition rates in Europe respond to transnational terrorism? The migration-security nexus revisited

“…+p < 0.10, *p < 0.05, **p < 0.01, ***p < 0.001. networks, as exemplified by 4/11 Madrid bombing, or infiltration of destination states' migration control mechanisms. Looking at asylum from the security angle, these findings comport with Toshkov's (2013) impression that a race to the bottom within Europe does not materialize insofar as the recognition rate is shielded from political rhetoric trumpeting restrictive policies. In effect, rather than security concerns creating a fortress Europe, the stiffening of asylum rates occurs in response to direct threats.…”

“…In contrast, the impact of total past asylum applications on the full recognition rate is insignificant but positive. These patterns echo Toshkov's (2013) conclusions that the share of asylum applications received by European states slightly dampens the full status recognition rate. 10 In line with commonly held intuition, GDP per capita of destination and origin states both drive up asylum recognition.…”

From hell to heaven? Evidence of migration trajectories from an Italian refugee centre

“…The existing quantitative literature on displaced individuals has mainly used aggregate data (Carling 2007;Toshkov 2014). There are also examples of case studies from single refugee centres in Europe, but they focus on specific nationalities and are based on a limited number of interviews (Wijers 2011).…”

Seeking the views of irregular migrants: Decision-making, drivers and migration journeys

“…Pull factors, on the other hand, include: asylum seeker policies in destination countries; how welcoming destination countries are perceived to be; perceptions of destination countries' acceptance of refugees; the state of 1 The author is grateful for research assistance from Simone Gangell and Paul Hayes in the preparation of this chapter. the economies of destination countries; and the existence of diaspora and communities in destination countries (Koser, 1997;Koser & Pinkerton, 2002;Neumayer, 2004;Theilemann, 2006;Toshkov, 2012).…”