The Dynamics of Inflation in South Africa: Implications for Policy*<sup>(1)</sup>

Akinboade, Oludele Akinloye; Niedermeier, Elizabeth Wambach; Siebrits, Franz

doi:10.1111/j.1813-6982.2002.tb01300.x

Cited by 16 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…where a is an intercept term; _ p t is the annualized quarterly inflation rate of the overall consumer price index (P t ), that is, _ p t [ 4(p t ÿ p tÿ1 ), 1. Akinboade et al (2002) conclude: ''Inflation reduction is likely to be particularly slow and costly in terms of output and employment . .…”

Section: Nonlinear Phillips Curves and Patterns Of Inflationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Structural Change and Nonlinearities in a Phillips Curve Model for South Africa

Nell¹

2006

Contemporary Economic Policy

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The main objective of this article is to reexamine the role of the Phillips curve for monetary policy analysis in South Africa by augmenting the model for major structural changes in the balance-of-payments and labor market. The main findings show that a linear Phillips curve with an output gap in levels accurately describes South Africa's nontrended inflation experience during 1971(Q1)-1984(Q4), whereas a piecewise concave curve with an output gap in growth rates correctly predicts the decelerating inflation pattern during 1986(Q1)-2001(Q2). The concave curve after 1985 imparts a deflationary bias that requires expansionary demand-side policies to stabilise the inflation rate. An important corollary is that expansionary demand-side policies can raise the average growth rate of the output gap over time without sacrificing stabilization objectives. (JEL C22, E3, E52)

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Section: Nonlinear Phillips Curves and Patterns Of Inflationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Structural Change and Nonlinearities in a Phillips Curve Model for South Africa

Nell¹

2006

Contemporary Economic Policy

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“…However, Niskanen (1978), Barro (1978), Miller (1983), McMillin and Beard (1982), Darrat (1988, 1989), Landon and Reid (1990), Ahking and Miller (1985) argue that budget deficits are not inflationary. Abedian and Abrahams (1996a;1996b) and Akinboade, Niedermeier and Siebrits (2002) suggest that fiscal policy has a limited effect on the inflationary process in South Africa because of the availability of 2003 SAJE v71(2) p284 developed financial markets for central government securities. Most of the previous studies in the existing literature focused attention on the impact of persistent budget deficits on inflation in the context of developed countries, especially the United States.…”

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confidence: 99%

An Empirical Investigation Into the Budget Deficit ‐ Inflation Nexus in South Africa

Anoruo

2003

South African J Economics

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“…Vermuelen (2017) investigated the dynamic relationship between inflation and unemployment rates in South Africa using the Phillips curve. The author extended previous works in the South African literature such as Akinboade, Niedermeier and Siebrits (2002), Kumo (2015), Stiglitz (2014), among others, and using different Phillips curve models estimated over the period 2000 to 2015 with employment and unemployment rates. The findings revealed that there is no evidence of a trade-off between inflation and the unemployment rate, while it found conflicting evidence of a positive relationship between inflation and employment growth.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 81%

Investigating Predictors of Inflation in Nigeria: BMA and WALS Techniques

Tumala¹,

Olubusoye²,

Yaaba³

et al. 2018

AJAS

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Abstract. The recent economic conundrum arising from the fall in the international oil price has threatened the maintenance of price stability, a key function of the central bank, therefore the need to investigate predictors of inflationary measures arises. The model averaging method considers uncertainty as part of the model selection, and include information from all candidate models. We analysed a wide spectrum of inflation predictors and all possible models for Nigeria CPI inflation using the Bayesian Model Averaging and Weighted Average Least Squares. The study uses fifty-nine (59) predictor variables cutting across all sectors of the Nigerian economy and three (3) measures of inflation, namely; all items consumer price index, core consumer price index and food consumer price index. (to be continued in page 302) Full Abstract (ENGLISH) The recent economic conundrum arising from the fall in the international oil price has threatened the maintenance of price stability, a key function of the central bank, therefore the need to investigate predictors of inflationary measures arises. The model averaging method considers uncertainty as part of the model selection, and include information from all candidate models. We analysed a wide spectrum of inflation predictors and all the possible models for Nigeria CPI inflation using the Bayesian Model Averaging and Weighted Average Least Squares. The study uses fifty-nine (59) predictor variables cutting across all sectors of the Nigerian economy and three (3) measures of inflation, namely; all items consumer price index, core consumer price index and food consumer price index. The results from both model averaging techniques showed that maximum lending rate, world food price index and Bureau de change exchange rate are the significant drivers of inflationary measures among focus variables, while foreign assets, credit to private sectors, net credit to government and real effective exchange rate are the drivers of inflationary measures, for the auxiliary variables, strongly supporting the monetarist and open economy views on inflation. The structuralist view is reported to be relatively weaker because government expenditure is only significant at 10.0 per cent.Résumé (FRENCH) L'énigmeéconomique récente découlant de la chute des cours internationaux du pétrole a menacé le maintien de la stabilité des prix, des principales fonctions de la Banque centrale, la nécessité d'enquêter sur les prédicteurs de mesures inflationnistes se pose donc. Le modèle avec une moyenne de méthode considère l'incertitude dans le cadre de la sélection du modèle et inclure les informations de tous les modèles de candidat. Nous avons analysé un largeéventail d'indicateurs de l'inflation et tous les modèles possibles pour le Nigéria IPC en utilisant le modèle bayésien en moyenne et pondérée moyenne des moindres carrés. L'étude utilise des variables prédictives de cinquante-neuf 59 coupe tous les secteurs de l'économie nigériane et 3 trois mesures de l'inflation, a savoir ; tout indice prix consommat...

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The Dynamics of Inflation in South Africa: Implications for Policy*⁽¹⁾

Cited by 16 publications

References 22 publications

Structural Change and Nonlinearities in a Phillips Curve Model for South Africa

Structural Change and Nonlinearities in a Phillips Curve Model for South Africa

An Empirical Investigation Into the Budget Deficit ‐ Inflation Nexus in South Africa

Investigating Predictors of Inflation in Nigeria: BMA and WALS Techniques

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The Dynamics of Inflation in South Africa: Implications for Policy*(1)

Cited by 16 publications

References 22 publications

Structural Change and Nonlinearities in a Phillips Curve Model for South Africa

Structural Change and Nonlinearities in a Phillips Curve Model for South Africa

An Empirical Investigation Into the Budget Deficit ‐ Inflation Nexus in South Africa

Investigating Predictors of Inflation in Nigeria: BMA and WALS Techniques

Contact Info

Product

Resources

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The Dynamics of Inflation in South Africa: Implications for Policy*⁽¹⁾