The ecological determinants of severe dengue: A Bayesian inferential model

Annan, Esther; Bukhari, Moeen Hamid; Treviño, Jesús; Abad, Zahra Shakeri Hossein; Lubinda, Jailos; Silva, Eduardo A. B. da; Haque, Ubydul

doi:10.1016/j.ecoinf.2023.101986

Cited by 5 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 33 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Apart from the Southeastern region, DENV-3 was also prevalent in the Northeastern region. A map showing the distribution of DENV serotypes across Mexico [ 36 ] has characterized hotspots of DENV-3 in both Northeastern and Southeastern Mexico. The association between the northeastern region and severe dengue among those with primary infection suggests a possible link between the predominantly circulating serotype and disease severity.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Direct and indirect effects of age on dengue severity: The mediating role of secondary infection

Annan,

Treviño,

Zhao

et al. 2023

PLoS Negl Trop Dis

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Severe dengue occurrence has been attributed to increasing age and different dengue virus (DENV) serotypes that cause secondary infections and immune-enhancing phenomena. Therefore, we examined if the effect of age on dengue severity was mediated by infectivity status while controlling for sex and region. Further, we assessed the spatial clustering of dengue severity for individuals with primary and secondary infection across Mexican municipalities. Health data from 2012 to 2017 was retrieved from Mexico’s Ministry of Health. A mediation analysis was performed using multiple logistic regression models based on a directed acyclic graph. The models were explored for the direct effect of age on dengue severity and its indirect impact through secondary infection. In addition, severe dengue clusters were determined in some Northeastern and Southeastern municipalities through spatial analysis. We observed a nonlinear trend between age and severe dengue. There was a downward trend of severe dengue for individuals between 0 and 10 years and an upward trend above 10 years. The effect of age on dengue severity was no longer significant for individuals between 10 and 60 years after introducing infectivity status into the model. The mediating role of infectivity status in the causal model was 17%. Clustering of severe dengue among individuals with primary infection in the Northeastern region may point to the high prevalence of DENV-3 in the region. Public health efforts may prevent secondary infection among infants and the aged. In addition, there should be a further investigation into the effect of DENV-3 in individuals with primary disease.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Direct and indirect effects of age on dengue severity: The mediating role of secondary infection

Annan,

Treviño,

Zhao

et al. 2023

PLoS Negl Trop Dis

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…A systemic literature review exploring 12 studies across Southeast Asia and Latin America found mixed results between studies on associations between different poverty indicators and dengue burden [109]. Other studies suggest poverty may lead to increased dengue severity, though this may also be due to other covariates specific to the geographic region [110][111][112]. A recent systematic literature review found that lower income and rural settings were among several barriers to seeking healthcare for dengue [113].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The macroeconomic impact of a dengue outbreak: Case studies from Thailand and Brazil

Marczell,

García,

Roiz

et al. 2024

PLoS Negl Trop Dis

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Background Dengue is spreading in (sub)tropical areas, and half of the global population is at risk. The macroeconomic impact of dengue extends beyond healthcare costs. This study evaluated the impact of dengue on gross domestic product (GDP) based on approaches tailored to two dengue-endemic countries, Thailand and Brazil, from the tourism and workforce perspectives, respectively. Findings Because the tourism industry is a critical economic sector for Thailand, lost tourism revenues were estimated to analyze the impact of a dengue outbreak. An input-output model estimated that the direct effects (on international tourism) and indirect effects (on suppliers) of dengue on tourism reduced overall GDP by 1.43 billion US dollars (USD) (0.26%) in the outbreak year 2019. The induced effect (reduced employee income/spending) reduced Thailand’s GDP by 375 million USD (0.07%). Overall, lost tourism revenues reduced Thailand’s GDP by an estimated 1.81 billion USD (0.33%) in 2019 (3% of annual tourism revenue). An inoperability input-output model was used to analyze the effect of workforce absenteeism on GDP due to a dengue outbreak in Brazil. This model calculates the number of lost workdays associated with ambulatory and hospitalized dengue. Input was collected from state-level epidemiological and economic data for 2019. An estimated 22.4 million workdays were lost in the employed population; 39% associated with the informal sector. Lost workdays due to dengue reduced Brazil’s GDP by 876 million USD (0.05%). Conclusions The economic costs of dengue outbreaks far surpass the direct medical costs. Dengue reduces overall GDP and inflicts national economic losses. With a high proportion of the population lacking formal employment in both countries and low income being a barrier to seeking care, dengue also poses an equity challenge. A combination of public health measures, like vector control and vaccination, against dengue is recommended to mitigate the broader economic impact of dengue.

show abstract

A new modelling framework for predator-prey interactions: A case study of an aphid-ladybeetle system

Anjos

Naozuka

Volpatto

et al. 2023

Ecological Informatics

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The ecological determinants of severe dengue: A Bayesian inferential model

Cited by 5 publications

References 33 publications

Direct and indirect effects of age on dengue severity: The mediating role of secondary infection

Direct and indirect effects of age on dengue severity: The mediating role of secondary infection

The macroeconomic impact of a dengue outbreak: Case studies from Thailand and Brazil

A new modelling framework for predator-prey interactions: A case study of an aphid-ladybeetle system

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About