The Econometric quantitative analysis of the relationship among Medical Expenses Growth, Aging of Population and Economic Growth

Abstract

According to the statistical data in recent years,we make cointegration test and Granger causality test on the correlation of medical expenses growth ,economy and the aging of the population and find out that when it is adjusted by price deflation factor, the Income elasticity of China's medical spending is around 1; It is a long-term relationship of the influence of economic growth,aging of population on the growth of medical expenses,but the short-term impact is not serious;the impact of aging of population on medical expenses growth is significantly lower than the role of economic growth; economic growth ,medical expenses growth are all Granger reasons why the proportion of elderly people increase. Research methods Data Sources and Processing. In this paper, we use the data from 1978 ~ 2008 in our country, total health expenditure and GDP data were derived from the Chinese Health Statistics Yearbook and China Statistical Yearbook. To eliminate the effects of changes in population size, we use the total health expenses per capita and GDP per capita as indicators. Including 1978, 1990 and 2000 data as the census data, the rest of the year is 1% of the population sampled data. Firstly, the total health expenses per capita and GDP per capita indicators take austerity measures respectively by medical price and retail price index deflation. So the total health expenses per capita and GDP per capita has does not contain the price factors. In order to reduce the error produced in the process of data processing, for each variable indexation treatment. In 1978 as the base period, the value of 100, then put the annual data in the same proportion transformation. The total health expenses per capita,