The Economic Costs of Supply Chain Decoupling

Attinasi, Maria Grazia; Boeckelmann, Lukas; Meunier, Baptiste

doi:10.2139/ssrn.4532103

Cited by 22 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…Regarding trade, the ECB estimates the economic costs of supply chain decoupling, suggesting that real imports could potentially decline by up to 30% globally (see Attinasi, Boeckelmann, and Meunier 2023). In this respect, at the most important central into competitive blocs sets the stage for larger and more frequent shocks, accompanied by larger relative price shocks than those experienced before the pandemic.…”

Section: Risks and Opportunities Arising From The Erosion Of Global G...mentioning

confidence: 99%

The EU and the future reform of global governance: risks and scenarios after COVID-19

Burguete

2024

Preprint

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This report aims to identify ways for enhancing the European Union’s (EU’s) ability to anticipate and address global risks after the COVID-19 pandemic. To do so, it first examines the evolution of two major trends (global power and globalisation shifts) and its impact on global governance. The erosion of multilateralism entails well-documented risks and harmful effects for the economy, the environment, and human security, and it may lead to different scenarios where the EU’s resilience is jeopardised. To explore policy options and enhance the EU’s preparedness, this paper looks into the future by formulating four clearly differentiated scenarios on a ten-year horizon, based on whether a process of global governance reform takes place and the EU’s role in shaping it. In the scenarios where a process of global governance reform is absent, risks are more pronounced, and prosperity is more complex for the EU. Leadership serves as a strategic asset for the EU even in scenarios where global reform is absent as it promotes internal cohesion. Finally, to foster further research, this paper briefly discusses some ideas on how the EU could unlock a process of global reform and lead these debates.

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Section: Risks and Opportunities Arising From The Erosion Of Global G...mentioning

confidence: 99%

The EU and the future reform of global governance: risks and scenarios after COVID-19

Burguete

2024

Preprint

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“…Second, we contribute to a fast-developing literature that examines the consequences of geoeconomic fragmentation. Recent studies that quantify aggregate losses in this context include Attinasi et al (2023), Felbermayr et al (2023, Javorcik et al (2022) and others. 4 Most related and complementary to our analysis are Fally and Sayre (2018) and Bolhuis et al (2023), who show that the specific features of commodities amplify the aggregate effects of trade disruptions in multicountry, multisector trade models.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Geoeconomic Fragmentation and Commodity Markets

Alvarez

2023

IMF Working Papers

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This paper studies the economic impact of fragmentation of commodity trade. We assemble a novel dataset of production and bilateral trade flows of the 48 most important energy, mineral and agricultural commodities. We develop a partial equilibrium framework to assess which commodity markets are most vulnerable in the event of trade disruptions and the economic risks that they pose. We find that commodity trade fragmentation -which has accelerated since Russia's invasion of Ukraine -could cause large price changes and price volatility for many commodities. Mineral markets critical for the clean energy transition and selected agricultural commodity markets appear among the most vulnerable in the hypothetical segmentation of the world into two geopolitical blocs examined in the paper. Trade disruptions result in heterogeneous impacts on economic surplus across countries. However, due to offsetting effects across commodity producing and consuming countries, surplus losses appear modest at the global level.

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