The Economic Effects of International Sanctions: An Event Study

Gutmann, Jerg; Neuenkirch, Matthias; Neumeier, Florian

doi:10.2139/ssrn.3821520

Cited by 3 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 68 publications

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“…More recently, Gutmann et al (2021) use an event-study approach as well as panel difference-in-difference regressions to estimate the effect of sanctions on economic growth and its components. To address causality concerns, they compare sanctioned countries with those only threatened with sanctions.…”

Section: Econometric Evidence From Cross-national Panel Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

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The human consequences of economic sanctions

Rodríguez

2023

JES

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PurposeThe use of economic sanctions has grown dramatically in recent decades. Nevertheless, many arguments are presented in the public policy space regarding their effects on target populations. The author presents the first systematic analysis of the effects of sanctions on living conditions in target countries.Design/methodology/approachThis paper provides a comprehensive survey and assessment of the literature on the effects of economic sanctions on living standards in target countries. The author identifies 31 studies that apply quantitative econometric or calibration methods to cross-country and national data to assess the impact of economic sanctions on indicators of human and economic development. The author provides in-depth discussions of three sanctions episodes—Iran, Afghanistan and Venezuela—that illustrate the channels through which sanctions affect living conditions in target countries.FindingsOf the 31 studies, 30 find that sanctions have negative effects on outcomes ranging from per capita income to poverty, inequality, mortality and human rights. The author provides new results showing that 54 countries—27% of all countries and 29% of the world economy— are sanctioned today, up from only 4% of countries in the 1960s. In the three cases discussed, sanctions that restricted the access of governments to foreign exchange limited the ability of states to provide essential public goods and services and generated substantial negative spillovers on private sector and nongovernmental actors.Originality/valueThis is the first literature survey that systematically assesses the quantitative evidence on the effect of sanctions on living conditions in target countries.

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Section: Econometric Evidence From Cross-national Panel Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…More recently, Gutmann et al. (2021) use an event-study approach as well as panel difference-in-difference regressions to estimate the effect of sanctions on economic growth and its components.…”

Section: Econometric Evidence From Cross-national Panel Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

The human consequences of economic sanctions

Rodríguez

2023

JES

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Trade Sanctions — Effects and Side Effects

Petersen¹,

Schwab²

2022

Wirtschaftsdienst

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ZusammenfassungLänder setzen immer wieder Wirtschaftssanktionen gegen andere Nationen ein, um diese zu einem bestimmten Handeln zu bewegen. Ein verändertes Verhalten soll dadurch erwirkt werden, dass dem von der Sanktion betroffenen Land ein wirtschaftlicher Schaden zugefügt wird. Er erhöht den Preis für Handlungen, die als unerwünscht angesehen werden. Dieser Beitrag untersucht die ökonomischen Auswirkungen von Handelssanktionen auf die beteiligten Volkswirtschaften und diskutiert diese in der aktuellen Situation mit Russland.

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A commodity exporting economy under “the new reality”: Aggregate and structural changes

2022

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“The new reality” means a commodity-exporting economy cannot use its accumulated fx-reserves or attract new fx-debt to smooth abrupt import reduction amid slower decline of income flow from commodity export. We use a modified version of the Ramsey—Cass—Koopmans’ model to study aggregate and structural changes in the economy under these conditions in the shorter and longer run. The results show that the potential GDP of the economy which cannot effectively substitute its import should decline both in the shorter and longer run. However, full and effective import substitution does not guarantee households would restore their volume of consumption. The reasons are, first, labor reallocation into the import-substituting sector that reduces availability of labor for other sectors and, second, the need to keep capital intensity of production at a higher level. If the efficiency of import substitution is asymmetric and biased to goods for final consumption relative to goods for investments, the structure of imported goods becomes biased to the later. Moreover, goods for final consumption experience very intensive import substitution in such a case. However, it does not result in the restored level of total consumption. The results may imply higher consumer goods inflation in practice. If import substitution is extremely inefficient in both consumption and investment goods’ production, households cannot avert a huge reduction of their welfare.

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The Economic Effects of International Sanctions: An Event Study

Cited by 3 publications

References 68 publications

The human consequences of economic sanctions

The human consequences of economic sanctions

Trade Sanctions — Effects and Side Effects

A commodity exporting economy under “the new reality”: Aggregate and structural changes

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