The Economic Impacts of Climate Change on the Rice Production in Malaysia

Vaghefi, Negin; Shamsudin, Mad Nasir; Abdullah, Ahmad Makmom; Bagheri, Maryam

doi:10.3923/ijar.2011.67.74

Cited by 67 publications

(34 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…Recently, the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) reported that climate change could reduce the paddy yield by 10 to 15%, which can result in a rise in market price by 32 to 37% [55,56]. Using historic data from 1999 to 2007, the ORYZA 2000 model predicted for Malaysia that a 2 • C temperature increase could reduce paddy yields by 0.36 t ha −1 , which would result in a huge economic loss [57]. Matthews et al, simulated the impact of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide on the productivity of rice in various parts of Asia and found that on average the yields will go down by 4% [58].…”

Section: Paddymentioning

confidence: 99%

Effect of Climate Change on the Yield of Cereal Crops: A Review

Jin

Vanga

Saxena

et al. 2018

Climate

245

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By the end of this century, the average global temperature is predicted to rise due to the increasing release of greenhouse gases (GHGs) into the atmosphere. This change in climate can reduce agricultural yields, resulting in food insecurity. However, agricultural activities are one of the major contributors of GHGs and lower yields can trigger increased activity to meet the demand for food, resulting in higher quantities of GHGs released into the atmosphere. In this paper, we discuss the growth requirements and greenhouse gas release potential of staple cereal crops and assess the impact of climate change on their yields. Potential solutions for minimizing the influence of climate change on crop productivity are discussed. These include breeding to obtain cereals that are more tolerant to conditions caused by climate change, increased production of these new cultivars, improved irrigation, and more effective use of fertilizers. Furthermore, different predictive models inferred that climate change would reduce production of major cereal crops, except for millets due to their ability to grow in variable climatic conditions, and in dry areas due to a strong root system. Moreover, millets are not resource-intensive crops and release fewer greenhouse gases compared to other cereals. Therefore, in addition to addressing food security, millets have an enormous potential use for reducing the impact of agriculture on global warming and should be grown on a global scale as an alternative to major cereals and grains.

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Section: Paddymentioning

confidence: 99%

Effect of Climate Change on the Yield of Cereal Crops: A Review

Jin

Vanga

Saxena

et al. 2018

Climate

245

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“…Global climate change, however, has generated serious threats to achieving sustainable growth in rice production (Adams et al 1998;Wassmann and Dobermann 2007;IFPRI International Food Policy Research Institute 2010;Vaghefi et al 2011). Rice productivity and sustainability are already threatened by several biotic and abiotic stresses, and the effects of these stresses can be further aggravated by dramatic changes in global climate.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Benefits of the development and dissemination of climate-smart rice: ex ante impact assessment of drought-tolerant rice in South Asia

Mottaleb

Rejesus

Murty

et al. 2016

Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change

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In the era of climate change, rice (Oryza sativa L.) production is increasingly affected by the rising frequency and severity of various abiotic stresses such as flood and drought. In some cases, 100 % yield loss can be attributed solely to these stresses. Hence, there is an urgent need to develop climate-smart rice that is more resilient to abiotic stresses. As the development and dissemination of climate-smart rice varieties entail costs, this article examines the net economic benefits of developing and disseminating successful drought-tolerant rice in South Asia where rice area prone to drought far outweighs area with other abiotic stresses. Drought causes major rice yield losses not only in South Asia but also in other parts of Asia and Africa. Using the ORYZA2000 (ORYZA model series were developed at the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) in the early 1990s in collaboration with Wageningen University and Research Centre (WUR) and 16 national agricultural research and extension systems in Asia. ORYZA2000 is an update and integration of earlier versions of the ORYZA model. More detailed documentation of ORYZA2000 can be found in (http://books.irri.org/9712201716_content.pdf)) crop growth simulation model, we demonstrate that a successful drought-tolerant rice variety can provide yield gains in South Asia of a minimum of 1.71 % to a maximum of 8.96 % when there is no change in the climate and under different climate scenarios projected by Canadian General Circulation Models (CGCMs). Moreover, our economic analysis shows that the economic benefits from the successful development and dissemination of droughttolerant rice more than outweigh the research investments needed to develop a variety. Although the research, development, and Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change dissemination of a climate-smart drought-tolerant rice variety in the South require USD 84 million, our economic model indicates that rice production will be higher by a minimum of 6 million tons worth USD 3.3 billion, and rice prices will be lower by a minimum of USD 72 per ton when a drought-tolerant variety is adopted in South Asia (as compared to the case without this new variety). This can lead to improved rice food security and better nutritional outcomes for the poor.

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“…According to the reports of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2007 and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) in 2008, humid tropical zones will suffer negative impacts of the climate change, which definitely affects the way of life and food production. Various studies have been conducted to measure the effects of climate change impacts on net farm revenue such as integration of the Environment Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and International Food Policy and Agricultural Simulation (IFPSIM) model (Wu et al, 2007), ORYZA 2000 (Vaghefi et al, 2011), Global circulation model (GCM) (Tumbo et al, 2010), Ricardian model (Fleischer et al, 2007;Ajetomobi, 2010;Thapa and Joshi, 2010;Mendelsohn, 2014), Statistical approaches were used to analyze the relationships between observed yield and climate (Chen et al, 2013;Huang et al, 2013;Wang et al, 2014). Mostly, their outcome found that rice production will decline with increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation, with decrease the net revenue per hectare, especially in dry land and non-irrigated areas.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Preliminary Study of Climate Change Impact on Rice Production and Economic in Thailand

Arunrat¹,

Pumijumnong²

2015

ASS

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Climate change affects crop production in two ways: changes in GDP and population and changes in climate variables, especially temperature and precipitation. This study aims to investigate preliminary effects of climate change impacts on Thailand's rice production, consumption, and export capacity by integrated EPIC model and the world and Thai rice market models. Therefore, the Biophysical process model (EPIC model) and Economic processes model are employed as the research methodology of this study. Main findings of the comparison showed both rice production and export in the base year (2007) are likely to expand until 2027, and there will be a sufficient amount of rice surplus for export, which is nearly the same level as that of domestic consumption in A2 scenario. In 2017, the amount of rice production will be only slightly higher than the domestic demand, leaving a small rice surplus of up to 2 million tons for export, compared to 14 million tons in 2016. However, in B2 scenario, the rice production capacity will be much lower than the domestic demand, meeting only half of it in 2017. From 2017 to 2019, the rice production capacity will undergo a constant fall and no longer meet the market demand as a result; it is estimated that there will be a shortage of approximately 0.038 to 0.218 ton. It is therefore important to note that if B2 scenario became reality in 2017, the rice production capacity of Thailand would nearly fail to meet the minimum level of domestic demand. However, we assure that Thailand still have land where can be converted to rice production with multiple cropping through irrigation investment, while comprehensive technical adaptation and mitigation to enhance farmer benefits are required.

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The Economic Impacts of Climate Change on the Rice Production in Malaysia

Cited by 67 publications

References 10 publications

Effect of Climate Change on the Yield of Cereal Crops: A Review

Effect of Climate Change on the Yield of Cereal Crops: A Review

Benefits of the development and dissemination of climate-smart rice: ex ante impact assessment of drought-tolerant rice in South Asia

The Preliminary Study of Climate Change Impact on Rice Production and Economic in Thailand

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