The Educated Underdog Becomes the Ultimate Superstar

Abstract

We …nd an inverted relation between a player's birthday and the likelihood of receiving the Ballon d'Or (awarded to the best football player in the world). We develop a multi-period skill formation model with selection into elite education. We show that those born late (underdogs) need to work harder to be selected for elite educational programs. However, those born too late will not make the cut-o¤. Those born late-but not too late-will thus end up with the highest skill levels as adults (educated underdogs). We use detailed data on the performance of elite Swedish football players to illustrate our model. These data provide strong support for the predictions of the model. 1 Approximately 50,000 boys have been born each year in Sweden during recent decades. Of the approximately 25,000 9year-old players and 17,500 14-year-old players, only around 100 participated in national youth team practises and 1000 had the chance to play in youth clubs with excellent training. Eventually, approximately 60 will become elite players as adults (source: The Swedish Football Association, http://fogis.se/om-sv¤). 2 In 2015, LinkedIn asked 8,000 professionals in the U.S. about their childhood dream jobs. More than 8% of all surveyed professionals stated that their childhood dream job was to become a professional or Olympic athlete. Other top childhood dream jobs included airplane or helicopter pilot, scientist, lawyer and astronaut. Approximately 30% of the surveyed professionals reported that they actually pursued their childhood aspiration (or a similar career).