Background: New Zealand's Immunisation Programme is an important pillar in the war against COVID-19, making high vaccine uptake essential. This study sought to: (1) identify potential vaccine uptake rates among New Zealanders prior to programme rollout; (2) understand reasons for unlikelihood/likelihood of vaccine uptake; and, (3) explore sociodemographic differences in these risks.Methods: Data came from a longitudinal study representing a diverse sample of New Zealanders collected in March 2021 (n=1,284). Multinomial and logit regressions were estimated to examine sociodemographic predictors of vaccine hesitancy and reasons for likelihood/hesitancy. Findings: 70% reported they would likely take the vaccine once available. Being younger and less educated were correlated with greater vaccine hesitancy risk. Women were more likely than men to say they were unsure (vs. either likely or unlikely) and to identify concerns regarding personal health, such as potential side effects, as a reason. Men identified concerns surrounding trust in vaccines and the perceived exaggerated risk of COVID-19 to them and the population.Interpretation: Although a majority intend to take the COVID-19 vaccine once available, a sizeable minority who are more likely to be young, female, and less educated, are unsure about or unlikely to get the vaccine, primarily due to perceptions of unknown future side effects. Ethnicity was not statistically associated with vaccine hesitancy, suggesting that public health efforts aimed at increasing vaccine acceptance among Māori and Pacific peoples-subgroups most at-risk of COVID-19 infection and morbidity-should focus on inequities in health care access to increase uptake.Funding: n/a.
Research in contextEvidence before this study: While an extant amount of survey data and literature exists to monitor the COVID-19 vaccine rollout and vaccine hesitancy in developed countries that are most impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, there appears scant evidence on potential vaccine uptake in New Zealand-a country that had yet to make vaccines available to the general population and where there was minimal community transmission of the virus.