The effect of Atlantic and Pacific sea surface temperatures on the mid-summer drought of Costa Rica

Waylen, Peter R.; Quesada, Marvin

doi:10.18172/cig.1123

Cited by 10 publications

(9 citation statements)

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“…The influence of the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on the precipitation variability field in Central America has been deeply studied in the last decade. Alfaro (2007) explains that in addition to the main mode of interannual variability in the equatorial Pacific, El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO (Waylen et al, 1994(Waylen et al, , 1996a, the interannual and decadal variability in tropical Atlantic SSTs should be taken into account for a better explanation of the precipitation variability in Central America (Enfield and Alfaro, 1999;Alfaro, 2000;Gianni et al, 2000Gianni et al, , 2001Enfield et al, 2001;Waylen and Quesada, 2001;Taylor et al, 2002;Spence et al, 2004;Poveda et al, 2006). The variability of deep convection and the strength of the trade winds that interact with the complex topography of the region is modulated by the surrounding warm water pools (Enfield and Alfaro, 1999), with temperatures above 28.5 • C (Wang et al, 2006), and their gradients around the isthmus.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seasonal prediction of extreme precipitation events and frequency of rainy days over Costa Rica, Central America, using Canonical Correlation Analysis

et al. 2013

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Abstract. High mountains divide Costa Rica, Central America, into two main climate regions, the Pacific and Caribbean slopes, which are lee and windward, respectively, according to the North Atlantic trade winds – the dominant wind regime. The rain over the Pacific slope has a bimodal annual cycle, having two maxima, one in May–June and the other in August-September-October (ASO), separated by the mid-summer drought in July. A first maximum of deep convection activity, and hence a first maximum of precipitation, is reached when sea surface temperature (SST) exceeds 29 °C (around May). Then, the SST decreases to around 1 °C due to diminished downwelling solar radiation and stronger easterly winds (during July and August), resulting in a decrease in deep convection activity. Such a reduction in deep convection activity allows an increase in down welling solar radiation and a slight increase in SST (about 28.5 °C) by the end of August and early September, resulting once again in an enhanced deep convection activity, and, consequently, in a second maximum of precipitation. Most of the extreme events are found during ASO. Central American National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS) have periodic Regional Climate Outlook Fora (RCOF) to elaborate seasonal predictions. Recently, meetings after RCOF with different socioeconomic stakeholders took place to translate the probable climate impacts from predictions. From the feedback processes of these meetings has emerged that extreme event and rainy days seasonal predictions are necessary for different sectors. As is shown in this work, these predictions can be tailored using Canonical Correlation Analysis for rain during ASO, showing that extreme events and rainy days in Central America are influenced by interannual variability related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation and decadal variability associated mainly with Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Analyzing the geographical distribution of the ASO-2010 disaster reports, we noticed that they did not necessarily agree with the geographical extreme precipitation event distribution, meaning that social variables, like population vulnerability, should be included in the extreme events impact analysis.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seasonal prediction of extreme precipitation events and frequency of rainy days over Costa Rica, Central America, using Canonical Correlation Analysis

et al. 2013

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“…The frequency and severity of storms, droughts, and floods in different parts of the world have been shown to be related to ENSO through atmospheric and oceanic circulation responses known as teleconnections [ Dai et al , 1998]. The relationship between ENSO events and Caribbean rainfall anomalies has been discussed in numerous papers [ Hastenrath , 1976; Ropelewski and Halpert , 1986; Rogers , 1988; Enfield , 1996; Malmgren et al , 1998; Enfield and Alfaro , 1999; Giannini et al , 2000, 2001a, 2001b; Waylen and Quesada , 2001; Chen and Taylor , 2002; Taylor et al , 2002; Martis et al , 2002; Spence et al , 2004]. For example, Jamaica experiences an increase in rainfall during May–July of the year following a warm ENSO event [ Chen et al , 1997], whereas Cuba receives more rain earlier in the season (January–March) [ Giannini et al , 2000].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Subregional precipitation climate of the Caribbean and relationships with ENSO and NAO

2007

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[1] Thirty-five meteorological stations encompassing the Caribbean region (Cuba, Bahamas, Jamaica, Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, US Virgin Islands, St. Maarten, and Barbados) were analyzed over the time interval 1951-1981 to assess regional precipitation patterns and their relationships with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Application of factor analysis to these series revealed the existence of four geographically distinct precipitation regions, (C1) western Cuba and northwestern Bahamas, (C2) Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and southeastern Bahamas, (C3) Dominican Republic and northwestern Puerto Rico, and (C4) eastern Puerto Rico, US Virgin Islands, St. Maarten, and Barbados. This regionalization is related to different annual cycles and interannual fluctuations of rainfall. The annual cycle is more unimodal and largest in the northwest Caribbean (C1) and becomes increasingly bimodal toward lower latitudes (C4) as expected. Year-to-year variations of precipitation are compared with two well-known climatic indices. The ENSO relationship, represented by Niño 3.4 sea surface temperatures (SST), is positive and stable at all lags, but tends to reverse over the SE Caribbean (C4) in late summer. The NAO influence is weak and seasonally dependent. Early summer rainfall in the northwest Caribbean (C1) increases under El Niño conditions. Clusters 2 and 3 are less influenced by the global predictors and more regional in character.

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“…More than 30% of vegetation dynamics can be explained by the combined indices 3 and 8 at time lags of 1 and 8 months, respectively. Our results suggest that both the Atlantic and Pacific teleconnection patterns play important roles in the ecosystem dynamics in the Central America forests, which is consistent with the result of a previous study in this region by Waylen and Quesada, .…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 79%

Global nonlinear and nonstationary climate change effects on regional precipitation and forest phenology in Panama, Central America

Chang

Valdez

Chen

et al. 2014

Hydrological Processes

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The inherent effects of global sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on hydrological cycle and vegetation cover complicate the structure of tropical climate at the regional scale. Assessing hydrological processes related to climate forcing is important in Central America because it is surrounded by both the Pacific and Atlantic oceans and two continental landmasses. In this study, the use of high‐resolution remote sensing imagery in wavelet analysis helps identify nonstationary characteristics of hydrological and ecological responses. The wavelet‐based empirical orthogonal function (WEOF) further reflects the nonlinear relationship between the Atlantic and Pacific SST and the greenness of a pristine forested site in Panama, La Amistad International Park. Integrated WEOF and descriptive statistics for data analysis reveal a higher temporal variability in terrestrial precipitation relative to in situ land surface temperature and its probable effects on the presence of dry periods. Such teleconnection signals of SST were identified as a driving force of decline in tropical forest greenness during dry periods. The results of our remote sensing‐based wavelet analysis showed intra‐annual high‐frequency and biennial to triennial low‐frequency signals between enhanced vegetation index/precipitation datasets and SST indices in both Atlantic and Pacific oceans. A spatiotemporal priority search further confirmed the importance of the effects of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) over terrestrial responses in the selected study site. Coincidence of the effect of ENSO teleconnection patterns on precipitation and vegetation suggests possible impacts of El Niño‐associated droughts in Central America, accompanied by reduced rainfall, especially during the first months of rainy season (June, July, and August), and decline in vegetation cover during the dry season (March and April). Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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The effect of Atlantic and Pacific sea surface temperatures on the mid-summer drought of Costa Rica

Abstract: The mid-summer drought of Central America is an important feature of the regional precipitation regime within the

Cited by 10 publications

References 12 publications

Seasonal prediction of extreme precipitation events and frequency of rainy days over Costa Rica, Central America, using Canonical Correlation Analysis

Seasonal prediction of extreme precipitation events and frequency of rainy days over Costa Rica, Central America, using Canonical Correlation Analysis

Subregional precipitation climate of the Caribbean and relationships with ENSO and NAO

Global nonlinear and nonstationary climate change effects on regional precipitation and forest phenology in Panama, Central America

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