The Effect of Civilian Casualties on Wartime Informing: Evidence from the Iraq War

Shaver, Andrew; Shapiro, Jacob N.

doi:10.1177/0022002721991627

Cited by 30 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…By the same token, government harm to civilians led to a decrease in informing on insurgents. 21 Beyond civilian victimization and indiscriminate violence, however, combatants can also undermine public support through their inability to curb other forms of exploitation, predation, and criminality in areas under their control. In Afghanistan, for example, such criminals can range from petty bandits and robbers to powerful warlords.…”

Section: Existing Explanations For Civilian Support During Wartimementioning

confidence: 99%

The Paradox of the Heavy-Handed Insurgent: Public Support for the Taliban Among Afghan Pashtuns

Kaltenthaler¹,

Kruglanski²,

Knuppe³

2022

Preprint

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Afghanistan is a profoundly insecure country, with a very high rate of insurgent violence, affecting large swathes of the population. Despite contributing to physical and economic insecurity across the country, Taliban insurgents have succeeded in creating what we call the “paradox of the heavy-handed insurgent.” Insurgents use attacks on government-controlled areas to generate public support by fostering a reputation for effective security provision for the civilian population under its control. For civilians who have a strong unmet need for physical security—especially those in rural and contested communities—heavy-handed insurgents are preferable to government forces who are perceived as either incompetent or unwilling to provide governance. We test this argument using data from the 2018 Asia Society Survey of the Afghan People. We find that the most important factor driving sympathy for the Taliban among Afghan Pashtuns is their sense of insecurity where they live. This indicates that an insurgent group that wears down government forces and weakens their ability to provide public goods and services can actually benefit by appearing as the more viable alternative for governance despite their heavy-handed tactics.

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Section: Existing Explanations For Civilian Support During Wartimementioning

confidence: 99%

The Paradox of the Heavy-Handed Insurgent: Public Support for the Taliban Among Afghan Pashtuns

Kaltenthaler¹,

Kruglanski²,

Knuppe³

2022

Preprint

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“…Governments need civilian support-and attendant information-to track and degrade mobile insurgent foes. With greater civilian support, counterinsurgents receive more quality tips (Shaver and Shapiro 2021), hold superior information about the capabilities and behaviors of their adversaries, and can more effectively apply force selectively to disrupt attacks (Schutte 2017) and deter collaboration with the enemy.…”

Section: Information and Civilian Abuse In Counterinsurgencymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In Afghanistan, indiscriminate violence increased collaboration with the perpetrators' adversary, especially when indiscriminate violence was perpetrated by ethnic out-groups (Lyall, Blair and Imai 2013). In Iraq, insurgent-perpetrated collateral damage reduced insurgent attacks (Condra and Shapiro 2012) and increased tip flows to counterinsurgents (Shaver and Shapiro 2021).…”

Section: Information and Civilian Abuse In Counterinsurgencymentioning

confidence: 99%

Restitution or Retribution? Detainee Payments and Insurgent Violence

Blair

2022

Journal of Conflict Resolution

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Counterinsurgents frequently rely on mass arrests to impede rebel operations, but in so doing, risk detaining innocent civilians. Wrongful detention can backfire, fueling insurgent violence by alienating detainees and their kin. Can counterinsurgents mitigate wrongful detention through targeted compensation? I study this question using project-level data on US payments to individuals deemed innocent and released from Coalition custody in Iraq between 2004 and 2008. Leveraging plausibly exogenous variation in the allocation of detainee release payments, I document a robust, negative association between counterinsurgent compensation for wrongful detention and insurgent violence. The violence-reducing effects of detainee release payments were greatest in Sunni and mixed sectarian areas; for the types of insurgent attacks, most prone to civilian informing; and when detainee release was complemented by other population-centric reforms. These results suggest that post-harm mitigation helps shift civilian perceptions, inducing civilians to share more information with counterinsurgent forces.

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“…While it is difficult to gauge actual numbers of civilian casualties (e.g., Ryan, 2018 ; Crawford and Lutz, 2019 ), evidence has accumulated that collateral damage—unintentional or incidental injury or damage to persons or objects that would not be lawful military targets in the circumstances ruling at the time ( U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, 2013 )—can have a deleterious impact on intergroup conflicts beyond the obvious human suffering and financial burden. The incidental death of non-combatants can contribute to the perpetuation and even escalation of conflict through increased radicalization and more negative attitudes toward the rival outgroup (e.g., Condra and Shapiro, 2012 ; Deri, 2012 ; Lyall et al, 2013 ; Shaver and Shapiro, 2015 ; Farooq et al, 2020 ; though see Shah, 2018 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Shamed If You Do, Shamed If You Do Not: Group-Based Moral Emotions, Accountability, and Tolerance of Enemy Collateral Casualties

et al. 2022

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Civilian casualties contribute to the perpetuation of intergroup conflicts through increased radicalization and hostilities, but little is known on the psychological processes that affect responses to outgroup civilian casualties. The goal of the present research was to explore two factors expected to lead group members to act more cautiously, thereby reducing civilian casualties: perceived accountability and forecast group-based moral emotions. In two studies, Jewish–Israeli civilians (Study 1) and soldiers (Study 2) were asked to forecast their group-based moral emotions in case of Palestinian (i.e., outgroup) civilian casualties, then exposed to accountability manipulations. Participants who expected to feel low levels of shame and were primed with accountability made more cautious decisions than those in the control condition. Participants who expected to feel high levels of shame were unaffected by accountability primes. Theoretical and practical implications regarding forecast moral emotions and accountability as an intervention in intergroup conflicts are discussed.

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The Effect of Civilian Casualties on Wartime Informing: Evidence from the Iraq War

Cited by 30 publications

References 32 publications

The Paradox of the Heavy-Handed Insurgent: Public Support for the Taliban Among Afghan Pashtuns

The Paradox of the Heavy-Handed Insurgent: Public Support for the Taliban Among Afghan Pashtuns

Restitution or Retribution? Detainee Payments and Insurgent Violence

Shamed If You Do, Shamed If You Do Not: Group-Based Moral Emotions, Accountability, and Tolerance of Enemy Collateral Casualties

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