The effect of climate change on extreme waves in front of the Dutch coast

Winter, R.C. de; Sterl, Andreas; Vries, J. W. de; Weber, S. L.; Ruessink, Gerben

doi:10.1007/s10236-012-0551-7

Cited by 33 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 25 publications

(29 reference statements)

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“…The increase in the total number of potential storm surge events found in this study cannot directly be compared to other studies including effects of the astronomical tide (e.g., Sterl et al, 2009;de Winter et al, 2012). Nevertheless, Sterl et al (2009) found no significant increase in storm surge events in Cuxhaven, which is in line with our results showing no changes in the most severe events.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 65%

“…With respect to wave heights under scenario conditions, Grabemann and Weisse (2008) pointed at increasing extreme wave heights over large parts in the southern and eastern North Sea. This is not a contradiction to findings of de Winter et al (2012), who found no significant change of projected mean wave heights and periods along the Dutch coasts as there can be different trends in the means and the extremes of an atmospheric phenomenon (see e.g., Ulbrich et al, 2009Ulbrich et al, , 2013Pinto et al, 2007). Findings from another study focusing on storm surges affecting the English coasts are also inconclusive as trends in surge heights cannot be separated from natural variability (Lowe et al, 2009).…”

Section: Introductioncontrasting

confidence: 52%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Identification of storm surge events over the German Bight from atmospheric reanalysis and climate model data

Befort

Fischer

Leckebusch

et al. 2015

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract.A new procedure for the identification of storm surge situations for the German Bight is developed and applied to reanalysis and global climate model data. This method is based on the empirical approach for estimating storm surge heights using information about wind speed and wind direction. Here, we hypothesize that storm surge events are caused by high wind speeds from north-westerly direction in combination with a large-scale wind storm event affecting the North Sea region. The method is calibrated for ERA-40 data, using the data from the storm surge atlas for Cuxhaven. It is shown that using information of both wind speed and direction as well as large-scale wind storm events improves the identification of storm surge events.To estimate possible future changes of potential storm surge events, we apply the new identification approach to an ensemble of three transient climate change simulations performed with the ECHAM5/MPIOM model under A1B greenhouse gas scenario forcing. We find an increase in the total number of potential storm surge events of about 12 % [(2001-2100)-(1901-2000)], mainly based on changes of moderate events. Yearly numbers of storm surge relevant events show high interannual and decadal variability and only one of three simulations shows a statistical significant increase in the yearly number of potential storm surge events between 1900 and 2100. However, no changes in the maximum intensity and duration of all potential events is determined. Extreme value statistic analysis confirms no frequency change of the most severe events.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 65%

Section: Introductioncontrasting

confidence: 52%

Identification of storm surge events over the German Bight from atmospheric reanalysis and climate model data

Befort

Fischer

Leckebusch

et al. 2015

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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show abstract

“…9.1. For example, Grabemann and Weisse (2008), who used the HadAM3H and the ECHAM4/OPYC3 GCM with SRES scenarios A2 and B2, projected a 0.1-0.3 m increase in the 99th percentile of H s in front of the Dutch coast by the end of the 21st century, while De Winter et al (2012), using the ECHAM5/MPI-OM and the SRES A1B scenario, found no detectable change in mean wave conditions. This would seem to indicate that model uncertainty in the prediction of H s is larger than the emission-induced uncertainty, as was found in general for global projections in the latest IPCC assessment (Van Oldenborgh et al 2013), which reports low confidence in wave projections because of "uncertain storm geography, limited number of model simulations, and the different methodologies used to downscale climate model results to regional scales".…”

Section: Sea-level Rise and Wave Characteristicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Grabemann and Weisse 2008;De Winter et al 2012) project no to small changes along the Dutch-German coast, with magnitudes depending on the type of general circulation model (GCM) or regional climate model (RCM) used and the particular greenhouse-gas emissions scenario adopted, as for example in Fig. 9.1.…”

Section: Sea-level Rise and Wave Characteristicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Environmental Impacts—Coastal Ecosystems

Bakker

Baas

Bartholdy

et al. 2016

North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment

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This chapter examines the impacts of climate change on the natural coastal ecosystems in the North Sea region. These comprise sandy shores and dunes and salt marshes in estuaries and along the coast. The chapter starts by describing the characteristic geomorphological features of these systems and the importance of sediment transport. Consideration is then given to the role of bioengineering organisms in feedback relationships with substrate, how changes in physical conditions such as embankments affect coastal systems, and the effects of livestock. The effects of climate change-principally accelerated sea-level rise, and changes in the wind climate, temperature and precipitation-on these factors affecting coastal ecosystems are then discussed. Although the focus of this chapter is on the interaction of abiotic conditions and the vegetation, the potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of plant species and on birds breeding in salt marshes is also addressed. Climate impacts on birds, mammals and fish species are covered in other chapters.

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“…The few global studies discussing large-scale projections of waves in view of climate change mainly focus on average wave conditions [Hemer et al, 2013a]. In global studies changes in extreme wave conditions have been marginally explored by focusing on high percentile values or on low return levels [Mori et al, 2010;Hemer et al, 2013aHemer et al, , 2013bSemedo et al, 2013;Wang et al, 2014;Perez et al, 2015], omitting the rare extremes that may give rise to catastrophic impacts, although more detailed local studies exist [De Winter et al, 2012;Lionello et al, 2012;Casas-Prat and Sierra, 2013;Erikson et al, 2015;Shimura et al, 2016].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global changes of extreme coastal wave energy fluxes triggered by intensified teleconnection patterns

Mentaschi

Vousdoukas

Voukouvalas

et al. 2017

Geophysical Research Letters

172

153

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In this study we conducted a comprehensive modeling analysis to identify global trends in extreme wave energy flux (WEF) along coastlines in the 21st century under a high emission pathway (Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5). For the end of the century, results show a significant increase up to 30% in 100 year return level WEF for the majority of the coastal areas of the southern temperate zone, while in the Northern Hemisphere large coastal areas are characterized by a significant negative trend. We show that the most significant long‐term trends of extreme WEF can be explained by intensification of teleconnection patterns such as the Antarctic Oscillation, El Niño–Southern Oscillation, and North Atlantic Oscillation. The projected changes will have broad implications for ocean engineering applications and disaster risk management. Especially low‐lying coastal countries in the Southern Hemisphere will be particularly vulnerable due to the combined effects of projected relative sea level rise and more extreme wave activities.

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The effect of climate change on extreme waves in front of the Dutch coast

Cited by 33 publications

References 25 publications

Identification of storm surge events over the German Bight from atmospheric reanalysis and climate model data

Identification of storm surge events over the German Bight from atmospheric reanalysis and climate model data

Environmental Impacts—Coastal Ecosystems

Global changes of extreme coastal wave energy fluxes triggered by intensified teleconnection patterns

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