The effect of climate on adult survival in five species of North Atlantic seabirds

Abstract

Summary 1.In long-lived species, adult survival is an important life-history trait. Better knowledge of the effects of non-catastrophic climate variation on the adult survival of longlived seabirds is therefore needed. However, documentation of such effects is still rare. 2. Using capture-mark-resighting data, we modelled the annual survival rates of five species of seabirds, the common guillemot ( Uria aalge ), Brünnich's guillemot ( Uria lomvia ), razorbill ( Alca torda ), Atlantic puffin ( Fratercula arctica ) and black-legged kittiwake ( Rissa tridactyla ). The data spanned 14 years of observation at a colony on Hornøya, off Northern Norway in the western Barents Sea. 3. A method of taking into account ring-loss of marked individuals is proposed. This approach made it possible to keep many observations which otherwise would have to be discarded. 4. The estimated survival rates were higher and less variable than most estimates for the same species from other colonies. There was extensive resighting heterogeneity. Ignoring this effect would have underestimated breeding life span by more than 50% in some species. 5. The analysis presented is the first study to document a correlation between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and adult survival in North Atlantic seabirds. Other environmental variables considered were sea surface temperatures (SST) and prey stocks. In most of the species, models incorporating climatological variables were considerably better supported than models with constant survival, time-dependent survival or prey effects. SSTs tended to explain more of the variability in seabird survival than did the NAO. 6. The importance of prey availability was evident in some of the species, but climate was generally a better predictor of survival. Nevertheless, the evidence suggests that meteorological parameters affect seabird mortality only indirectly, possibly through the food chain. This conclusion rests on the observations that most NAO effects are lagged, and that survival rates decreased with increasing SSTs.

Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) survival rates and their relationship to environmental indices in the South Shetland Islands, Antarctica

“…5b) may have contributed to this stabilization of juvenile survival. Complex environmental effects on Adélie penguin survival Large-scale atmospheric indices and associated regional changes in marine conditions have been implicated in trends in numerous seabird populations around the world (Veit et al 1996;Croxall et al 2002;Sandvik et al 2005;Devney et al 2009). In Antarctica, the responses of penguin populations to environmental variability have included changes in abundance (e.g., Trathan et al 1996;Wilson et al 2001), but also included shifts in range (Emslie et al 1998), changes in breeding phenology Hinke et al 2012), and changes in foraging behavior (Fraser and Hofmann 2003).…”

“…Many seabirds display such life history traits, but observed variation and directional change in environmental conditions have caused changes in phenology, breeding and foraging ranges, and population trends of numerous seabirds (Veit et al 1996;Sandvik et al 2005;Barbraud and Weimerskirch 2006;Devney et al 2009). In particular, long-term data on Antarctic seabirds dependent on sea ice habitats, including emperor (Aptenodytes forsteri) and Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae), and snow petrels (Pagodroma nivea) suggest that variation in the seasonal duration and spatial extent of winter sea ice can be important drivers of population change (Croxall et al 2002;Jenouvrier et al 2005;Emmerson and Southwell 2011).…”

Faithful or not: direct and indirect effects of climate on extra-pair paternities in a population of Alpine marmots

“…EPP occurrence is higher among groupliving than pair-living species [19,49] and positively correlated with group size and breeding density within species [50][51][52]. Climate, through its influence on reproduction and survival [53,54], is likely to modify the social structure of numerous mammalian species [55,56]. For instance, in Kalahari meerkats (Suricata suricatta) [57], rainy years increase subordinates' emigration and dominants' reproduction, modifying the age structure of social groups.…”

“…For instance, in Kalahari meerkats (Suricata suricatta) [57], rainy years increase subordinates' emigration and dominants' reproduction, modifying the age structure of social groups. Although the impact of climate change on demographic parameters such as reproduction and survival are now widely accepted [6,53,54,58,59], the indirect repercussions of such climatic effects on mating tactics are still largely neglected despite being very likely to affect the mating system of a wide range of species.…”

Impacts of climate variation and potential effects of climate change on South American seabirds – a review

“…southern fulmar Fulmarus glacialoides (Smith, 1840), in 1964Á2002: Jenouvrier et al 2003emperor penguin in 1962Á2001: Jenouvrier et al 2005a; King penguin Aptenodytes patagonicus Miller, 1778, in 1997Á2005: Le Bohec et al 2008; Northern Atlantic seabirds in 1989Á2003: Sandvik et al 2005; Galápagos penguins Spheniscus mendiculus Sundevall, 1871, in 1971Á2004: Vargas et al 2006, changes in migration patterns (sooty shearwater Puffinus griseus (Gmelin, 1789), in 1987Á 1994: Veit et al 1996 and changes in the distribution of species (e.g. non-breeding species in the California upwelling system: Ainley et al 2005;South Africa: Crawford et al 2008b), changes in the phenology of breeding (e.g.…”